The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Illawarra Hawks v Brisbane Bullets

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 06:36 UTC

Final: Illawarra Hawks 81–98 Brisbane Bullets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Illawarra Hawks (Local)

Prediction 57.44%1.74fair odd
EV +1.67%
Edge +0.945%
Kelly +2.17%
Growth +0.036%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.79%57.37%57.51%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.631.651.7767.57%61.27%60.61%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Bullets (Visit)

Prediction 42.56%2.35fair odd
EV +10.65%
Edge +4.10%
Kelly +6.66%
Growth +0.709%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%42.63%42.49%46.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.222.202.6051.55%44.97%45.45%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Illawarra Hawks (Local): 57.44%; Brisbane Bullets (Visit): 42.56%. For Brisbane Bullets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.35. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.65%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -13.84%E -9.22%K -27.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +10.65%E +4.10%K +6.66%G +0.709%5.1%2026-10-24 02:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -13.84%E -9.22%K -27.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +10.65%E +4.10%K +6.66%G +0.709%5.1%2026-10-24 02:25
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.22%E -3.16%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.25%E -1.89%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 06:20
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.22%E -3.16%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.25%E -1.89%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 06:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.65%E -2.80%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.10%E -2.29%K -4.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 06:20
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.65%E -2.80%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.10%E -2.29%K -4.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 06:20
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.65%E -2.80%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.10%E -2.29%K -4.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 06:20
Coolbet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%EV -5.79%E -3.53%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -5.52%E -2.49%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-24 06:24
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.81%EV -3.50%E -2.08%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%EV -5.95%E -2.69%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 06:25
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.22%E -3.16%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 06:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.22%E -3.16%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 06:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.22%E -3.16%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 06:20
picklebet_au🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.09%E -5.06%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 06:30
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -9.82%E -6.25%K -17.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 06:15
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%EV -8.09%E -5.06%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -7.22%E -3.31%K -6.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 06:29
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.35%E -1.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.50%E -3.95%K -7.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 06:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -0.050%E -0.029%K -0.067%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -10.63%E -5.06%K -9.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 06:10
SportsBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV +1.67%E +0.945%K +2.17%G +0.036%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -12.33%E -5.99%K -11.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 05:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 56.73%EV -14.98%E -10.12%K -31.22%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 43.27%EV -17.44%E -8.99%K -18.55%G +0.000%19.1%2026-10-24 06:28
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.57%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%1.6%2026-10-24 06:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.14%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.86%2.3%2026-10-24 06:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.14%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.86%2.3%2026-10-24 06:30