The School of Odds
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Illawarra Hawks v Adelaide 36ers

Kickoff: 2026-10-02 09:30 UTC

Final: Illawarra Hawks 114–92 Adelaide 36ers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Illawarra Hawks (Local)

Prediction 34.90%2.87fair odd
EV -0.541%
Edge -0.190%
Kelly -0.292%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.09%34.90%34.73%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.682.702.8539.22%37.33%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide 36ers (Visit)

Prediction 65.10%1.54fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.96%65.10%65.27%66.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.461.471.5173.53%68.42%68.03%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Illawarra Hawks (Local): 34.90%; Adelaide 36ers (Visit): 65.10%. For Illawarra Hawks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.85, with an expected value of -0.541%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -0.541%E -0.190%K -0.292%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -7.56%E -5.32%K -17.99%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-02 06:49
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -2.29%E -0.816%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.56%E -5.32%K -17.99%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-02 09:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.03%E -1.47%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.60%E -3.86%K -12.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 06:25
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.03%E -1.47%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.60%E -3.86%K -12.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 09:20
Dabble (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.03%E -1.47%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.25%E -4.34%K -14.21%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-02 09:09
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV -4.03%E -1.47%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -11.46%E -8.43%K -31.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-02 07:55
SportsBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.17%EV -5.43%E -2.00%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.83%EV -4.30%E -2.93%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-02 09:00
TAB🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -5.78%E -2.14%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.95%E -3.39%K -10.76%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-02 09:19
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.78%E -2.14%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.60%E -3.86%K -12.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-02 09:28
Betsson🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -5.78%E -2.14%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.56%E -5.32%K -17.99%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 09:25
Pinnacle🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -6.82%E -2.56%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -3.65%E -2.47%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-02 09:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.52%E -2.84%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.65%E -2.47%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 02:39
Neds🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.52%E -2.84%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.65%E -2.47%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 02:40
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.52%E -2.84%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.65%E -2.47%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 09:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -8.57%E -3.27%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -1.70%E -1.12%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-02 09:29
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.01%E -4.32%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.35%E -1.56%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-02 09:25
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.01%E -4.32%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.35%E -1.56%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-02 09:25
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.01%E -4.32%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.35%E -1.56%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-02 09:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.01%E -4.32%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.35%E -1.56%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-02 09:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.02%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.98%1.3%2026-10-02 09:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.02%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.98%1.3%2026-10-02 09:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.70%1.3%2026-10-02 09:25