The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cairns Taipans v New Zealand Breakers

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 04:06 UTC

Final: Cairns Taipans 86–84 New Zealand Breakers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cairns Taipans (Local)

Prediction 48.36%2.07fair odd
EV +2.51%
Edge +1.19%
Kelly +2.24%
Growth +0.056%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.65%48.39%48.15%50.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.991.982.1256.18%50.36%50.51%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand Breakers (Visit)

Prediction 51.64%1.94fair odd
EV -0.842%
Edge -0.438%
Kelly -0.915%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.47%51.61%51.85%55.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.791.781.9262.50%55.98%56.18%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cairns Taipans (Local): 48.36%; New Zealand Breakers (Visit): 51.64%. For Cairns Taipans (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.07. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV +2.51%E +1.19%K +2.24%G +0.056%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -11.69%E -6.83%K -16.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 04:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV +2.51%E +1.19%K +2.24%G +0.056%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -11.69%E -6.83%K -16.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 04:00
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV +2.51%E +1.19%K +2.24%G +0.056%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -11.69%E -6.83%K -16.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 04:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV +2.51%E +1.19%K +2.24%G +0.056%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -11.69%E -6.83%K -16.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 04:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -0.872%E -0.425%K -0.831%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -8.59%E -4.85%K -11.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 03:35
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -0.872%E -0.425%K -0.831%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -8.59%E -4.85%K -11.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 03:59
SportsBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -1.36%E -0.665%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -8.07%E -4.53%K -10.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 03:50
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -2.32%E -1.15%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -7.04%E -3.91%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 04:00
picklebet_au🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -3.29%E -1.64%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -8.07%E -4.53%K -10.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 03:59
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -4.26%E -2.15%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -9.62%E -5.50%K -12.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-25 03:59
Coolbet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.15%EV -5.22%E -2.67%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -6.01%E -3.30%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 03:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.71%E -2.93%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.46%E -2.41%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 20:25
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.71%E -2.93%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.46%E -2.41%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 20:25
Bet Right🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -6.67%E -3.46%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -6.01%E -3.30%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-25 04:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -7.16%E -3.73%K -7.78%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -4.46%E -2.41%K -5.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 03:45
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.64%E -4.00%K -8.40%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.36%E -0.711%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 03:50
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -9.09%E -4.84%K -10.33%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -0.842%E -0.438%K -0.915%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 03:45
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -11.51%E -6.29%K -13.87%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -5.49%E -3.00%K -6.61%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-19 08:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 47.34%EV -13.93%E -7.82%K -17.86%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 52.66%EV -17.37%E -10.86%K -28.95%G +0.000%18.7%2026-10-25 04:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%1.1%2026-10-25 04:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.46%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.54%1.5%2026-10-25 03:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.46%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.54%1.5%2026-10-25 03:55