The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Brisbane Bullets v Tasmania JackJumpers

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 07:30 UTC

Final: Brisbane Bullets 99–109 Tasmania JackJumpers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Bullets (Local)

Prediction 53.75%1.86fair odd
EV -0.029%
Edge -0.016%
Kelly -0.034%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.18%53.69%53.64%54.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.781.771.8657.80%56.23%56.50%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tasmania JackJumpers (Visit)

Prediction 46.25%2.16fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.45%46.31%46.36%48.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.052.1051.28%49.34%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Bullets (Local): 53.75%; Tasmania JackJumpers (Visit): 46.25%. For Brisbane Bullets (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.861. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.860, with an expected value of -0.029%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -0.029%E -0.016%K -0.034%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 06:45
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -0.567%E -0.306%K -0.666%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 00:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -0.567%E -0.306%K -0.666%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 00:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.25%E -1.81%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 05:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.33%E -2.43%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.18%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 06:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.15%EV -4.87%E -2.75%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.85%EV -3.33%E -1.59%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-03 06:04
Bet Right🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.87%E -2.75%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.18%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 06:40
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.87%E -2.75%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.18%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 07:05
TAB🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.87%E -2.75%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.18%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 06:15
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.87%E -2.75%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.18%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 14:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.87%E -2.75%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.18%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 14:05
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.87%E -2.75%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.18%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 14:05
TABtouch🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.87%E -2.75%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.18%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 14:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.40%E -3.07%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.18%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 07:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -5.40%E -3.07%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -5.65%E -2.77%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-02 14:05
Coolbet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.56%EV -5.40%E -3.07%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.44%EV -6.11%E -3.01%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-03 06:49
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.94%E -3.40%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.87%E -1.37%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-03 07:20
Betsson🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.02%E -4.06%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 07:05
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -7.02%E -4.06%K -9.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-03 01:31
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.41%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.59%1.5%2026-10-03 07:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.41%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.59%1.5%2026-10-03 07:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.41%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.59%1.5%2026-10-03 07:25