The School of Odds
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Brisbane Bullets v S.E. Melbourne Phoenix

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC

Final: Brisbane Bullets 115–105 S.E. Melbourne Phoenix

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Bullets (Local)

Prediction 30.85%3.24fair odd
EV +11.05%
Edge +3.07%
Kelly +4.25%
Growth +0.469%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.53%30.74%30.87%31.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.103.003.6034.48%32.29%33.33%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Visit)

Prediction 69.15%1.45fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -7.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.18%69.26%69.13%73.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.361.381.4076.92%73.36%72.46%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Bullets (Local): 30.85%; S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Visit): 69.15%. For Brisbane Bullets (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +11.05%E +3.07%K +4.25%G +0.469%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -10.10%E -7.77%K -33.67%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 07:15
Neds🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +11.05%E +3.07%K +4.25%G +0.469%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -10.10%E -7.77%K -33.67%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 07:15
Dabble (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -1.29%E -0.404%K -0.588%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.64%E -4.92%K -18.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 07:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -1.29%E -0.404%K -0.588%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.64%E -4.92%K -18.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 07:35
Bet Right🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.57%E -3.31%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 08:25
Pinnacle🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 30.87%EV -4.69%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.13%EV -4.57%E -3.31%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 08:15
SportsBet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -4.99%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.06%EV -4.57%E -3.31%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-15 08:10
Coolbet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.63%EV -4.99%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.37%EV -5.95%E -4.38%K -16.53%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-15 08:24
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.18%E -2.27%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 07:34
TAB🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.57%E -3.31%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 08:00
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.57%E -3.31%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 07:35
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.57%E -3.31%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 07:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.57%E -3.31%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 07:35
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.57%E -3.31%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 07:35
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.57%E -3.31%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 07:35
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.26%E -3.84%K -14.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-15 08:25
Betsson🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.64%E -4.92%K -18.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 07:50
picklebet_au🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.64%E -4.92%K -18.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 08:29
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -6.64%E -4.92%K -18.98%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-15 07:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%0.8%2026-10-15 08:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%0.8%2026-10-15 08:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%0.8%2026-10-15 08:25