The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Brisbane Bullets v New Zealand Breakers

Kickoff: 2026-09-22 09:36 UTC

Final: Brisbane Bullets 88–85 New Zealand Breakers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Bullets (Local)

Prediction 46.74%2.14fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -3.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.05%46.99%46.44%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.992.012.0655.56%50.25%49.75%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand Breakers (Visit)

Prediction 53.26%1.88fair odd
EV +6.52%
Edge +3.26%
Kelly +6.52%
Growth +0.426%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%53.01%53.56%53.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.801.772.0057.80%55.44%56.66%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Bullets (Local): 46.74%; New Zealand Breakers (Visit): 53.26%. For New Zealand Breakers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.88. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.52%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -15.87%E -8.82%K -19.84%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +6.52%E +3.26%K +6.52%G +0.426%5.6%2026-09-22 03:19
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -15.87%E -8.82%K -19.84%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +6.52%E +3.26%K +6.52%G +0.426%5.6%2026-09-22 03:19
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -8.86%E -4.54%K -9.33%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -0.400%E -0.214%K -0.460%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-22 09:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -8.86%E -4.54%K -9.33%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -1.47%E -0.792%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-22 08:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.59%E -2.77%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.06%E -1.68%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-22 09:28
SportsBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -6.99%E -3.51%K -7.06%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -3.06%E -1.68%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 09:34
Dabble (AU)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.59%E -2.77%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.13%E -2.29%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-22 09:29
TAB🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.52%E -3.26%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.13%E -2.29%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 09:28
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.52%E -3.26%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.73%E -3.24%K -7.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-22 09:29
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -3.72%E -1.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-22 08:49
BetRivers🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -3.72%E -1.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-22 08:49
TABtouch🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -3.72%E -1.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-22 08:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -3.72%E -1.81%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-22 08:49
Coolbet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.44%EV -5.12%E -2.52%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.56%EV -6.26%E -3.56%K -8.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-22 09:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.19%E -2.04%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.79%E -3.88%K -9.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-22 08:49
Bet Right🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -5.59%E -2.77%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -7.86%E -4.54%K -10.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-22 09:29
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.52%E -3.26%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.86%E -4.54%K -10.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-22 09:19
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -8.86%E -4.54%K -9.33%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -7.86%E -4.54%K -10.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-22 09:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74%1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26%0.6%2026-09-22 09:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.37%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63%1.3%2026-09-22 09:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14%1.3%2026-09-22 09:34