The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Brisbane Bullets v Illawarra Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-09-25 09:36 UTC

Final: Brisbane Bullets 103–95 Illawarra Hawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Bullets (Local)

Prediction 52.45%1.91fair odd
EV +0.172%
Edge +0.090%
Kelly +0.189%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%52.43%52.08%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.801.801.9157.80%55.56%55.56%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Illawarra Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 47.55%2.10fair odd
EV -0.137%
Edge -0.065%
Kelly -0.124%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%47.57%47.92%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.002.012.1054.05%49.96%49.75%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Bullets (Local): 52.45%; Illawarra Hawks (Visit): 47.55%. For Brisbane Bullets (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.907. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.910, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.172%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +0.172%E +0.090%K +0.189%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -9.17%E -4.80%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-25 09:20
PlayUp🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -1.40%E -0.745%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -8.22%E -4.26%K -8.84%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-25 09:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -2.97%E -1.61%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -9.65%E -5.08%K -10.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-25 09:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%EV -3.50%E -1.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%EV -4.89%E -2.45%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-25 09:29
SportsBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -4.55%E -2.50%K -5.55%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -5.37%E -2.70%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-25 09:30
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -4.55%E -2.50%K -5.55%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.15%EV -6.79%E -3.47%K -7.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-25 09:29
Dabble (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.60%E -3.11%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -3.94%E -1.95%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-25 09:20
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.60%E -3.11%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.89%E -2.45%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 09:05
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -5.60%E -3.11%K -7.00%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -6.32%E -3.21%K -6.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-25 09:15
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -5.60%E -3.11%K -7.00%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -12.03%E -6.50%K -14.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-25 09:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.65%E -3.73%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.99%E -1.47%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-25 09:15
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.65%E -3.73%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.99%E -1.47%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-25 09:15
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.65%E -3.73%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.99%E -1.47%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-25 09:15
TABtouch🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -6.65%E -3.73%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -2.99%E -1.47%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-25 09:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.54%EV -7.17%E -4.05%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.46%EV -2.99%E -1.47%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-25 09:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -9.27%E -5.36%K -12.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -0.137%E -0.065%K -0.124%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 05:50
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -9.27%E -5.36%K -12.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -0.137%E -0.065%K -0.124%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 08:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -9.27%E -5.36%K -12.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -0.137%E -0.065%K -0.124%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 08:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%0.5%2026-09-25 09:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-09-25 09:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 48.97%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.03%3.1%2026-09-25 09:35