The School of Odds
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Adelaide 36ers v S.E. Melbourne Phoenix

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 08:36 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adelaide 36ers (Local)

Prediction 49.91%2.00fair odd
EV +1.81%
Edge +0.888%
Kelly +1.74%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.01%49.66%50.00%51.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.891.902.0456.82%52.88%52.63%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Visit)

Prediction 50.09%2.00fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.669%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.29%50.34%50.00%52.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.891.881.9755.56%53.02%53.19%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaide 36ers (Local): 49.91%; S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Visit): 50.09%. For Adelaide 36ers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.00. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV +1.81%E +0.888%K +1.74%G +0.032%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -9.33%E -5.16%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-17 08:20
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.68%E -1.37%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.33%E -3.38%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-17 08:30
BetRivers🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.18%E -2.18%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.83%E -3.10%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-17 07:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.18%E -2.18%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.83%E -3.10%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-17 07:45
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.18%E -2.18%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.83%E -3.10%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-17 07:45
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.18%E -2.18%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.83%E -3.10%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-17 07:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -4.68%E -2.45%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -5.83%E -3.10%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-17 07:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.17%E -2.72%K -5.75%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.83%E -2.54%K -5.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-15 22:55
Neds🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.17%E -2.72%K -5.75%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.83%E -2.54%K -5.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-15 22:55
Bet Right🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.17%E -2.72%K -5.75%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.83%E -2.54%K -5.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-17 08:25
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -5.17%E -2.72%K -5.75%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -8.33%E -4.55%K -10.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-17 08:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -6.67%E -3.57%K -7.67%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -4.83%E -2.54%K -5.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-17 08:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.67%E -4.15%K -9.02%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.32%E -1.19%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-17 08:15
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.67%E -4.15%K -9.02%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.32%E -1.19%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-17 08:05
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -7.67%E -4.15%K -9.02%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -5.33%E -2.82%K -5.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-17 08:30
SportsBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -8.17%E -4.44%K -9.73%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -1.32%E -0.669%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-17 08:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.54%EV -8.17%E -4.44%K -9.73%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.46%EV -5.83%E -3.10%K -6.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-17 08:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.56%EV -12.16%E -6.91%K -16.00%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.44%EV -9.83%E -5.46%K -12.29%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-17 08:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%0.5%2026-03-17 08:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%0.5%2026-03-17 08:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%0.5%2026-03-17 08:35