The School of Odds
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Adelaide 36ers v New Zealand Breakers

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 05:36 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adelaide 36ers (Local)

Prediction 65.55%1.53fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -3.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.54%65.43%65.53%68.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.431.441.5072.99%70.09%69.69%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand Breakers (Visit)

Prediction 34.45%2.90fair odd
EV +3.36%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.68%
Growth +0.056%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.35%34.57%34.47%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.802.773.0041.67%35.75%36.04%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaide 36ers (Local): 65.55%; New Zealand Breakers (Visit): 34.45%. For New Zealand Breakers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.90. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -8.23%E -5.88%K -20.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +3.36%E +1.12%K +1.68%G +0.056%4.8%2026-02-22 05:20
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -9.54%E -6.92%K -25.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV +3.36%E +1.12%K +1.68%G +0.056%5.8%2026-02-22 05:30
Bet Right🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -10.20%E -7.45%K -27.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV +3.36%E +1.12%K +1.68%G +0.056%6.3%2026-02-22 05:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -8.23%E -5.88%K -20.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -0.088%E -0.030%K -0.046%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-22 05:35
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -8.23%E -5.88%K -20.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -0.088%E -0.030%K -0.046%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-22 03:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -8.23%E -5.88%K -20.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -0.088%E -0.030%K -0.046%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-22 03:00
SportsBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.27%E -4.38%K -14.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.81%E -0.635%K -0.979%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-22 04:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.04%EV -4.96%E -3.42%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.96%EV -2.84%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-22 05:10
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.92%E -4.87%K -16.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.53%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 04:26
Virgin Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.96%E -3.42%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-22 03:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.96%E -3.42%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-21 22:20
Unibet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.61%E -3.90%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-22 03:05
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.61%E -3.90%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-22 03:04
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.61%E -3.90%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-22 03:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.61%E -3.90%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.98%E -2.58%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-22 03:05
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.92%E -4.87%K -16.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -6.98%E -2.58%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-22 03:34
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.46%EV -4.96%E -3.42%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -9.39%E -3.57%K -5.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-22 05:34
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -1.68%E -1.12%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -17.31%E -7.21%K -12.37%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-22 04:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%0.9%2026-02-22 05:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%0.9%2026-02-22 05:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%0.9%2026-02-22 05:35