The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Adelaide 36ers v New Zealand Breakers

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 06:00 UTC

Final: Adelaide 36ers 72–88 New Zealand Breakers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adelaide 36ers (Local)

Prediction 64.17%1.56fair odd
EV -0.529%
Edge -0.341%
Kelly -0.962%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.25%64.31%64.17%66.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.481.481.5571.43%67.76%67.57%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand Breakers (Visit)

Prediction 35.83%2.79fair odd
EV +0.311%
Edge +0.111%
Kelly +0.173%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.73%35.69%35.83%38.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.642.622.8040.82%37.86%38.17%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaide 36ers (Local): 64.17%; New Zealand Breakers (Visit): 35.83%. For New Zealand Breakers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.79. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.311%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -8.23%E -5.76%K -19.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +0.311%E +0.111%K +0.173%G +0.001%5.6%2026-10-04 05:45
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -8.23%E -5.76%K -19.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +0.311%E +0.111%K +0.173%G +0.001%5.6%2026-10-04 05:45
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -8.23%E -5.76%K -19.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +0.311%E +0.111%K +0.173%G +0.001%5.6%2026-10-04 05:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.59%E -5.27%K -17.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -1.48%E -0.538%K -0.846%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-04 05:59
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -8.23%E -5.76%K -19.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -1.48%E -0.538%K -0.846%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-04 05:59
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -10.16%E -7.25%K -25.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -1.48%E -0.538%K -0.846%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 22:34
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -5.66%E -3.85%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -2.56%E -0.939%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 04:00
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -5.02%E -3.39%K -10.46%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -4.35%E -1.63%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-04 05:46
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -5.66%E -3.85%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -5.78%E -2.20%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-04 05:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -3.10%E -2.05%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -6.14%E -2.34%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-04 05:55
Dabble (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.74%E -2.49%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.85%E -2.64%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 01:40
PlayUp🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.74%E -2.49%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.85%E -2.64%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 05:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.74%E -2.49%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.85%E -2.64%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 05:45
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.95%E -4.79%K -15.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.85%E -2.64%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-04 05:45
TAB🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.74%E -2.49%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.65%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 04:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.74%E -2.49%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.65%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 01:45
Bet Right🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.74%E -2.49%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.44%E -4.17%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-04 04:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -0.529%E -0.341%K -0.962%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -12.23%E -4.99%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 01:00
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -0.529%E -0.341%K -0.962%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -12.23%E -4.99%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 01:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%0.5%2026-10-04 05:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%0.5%2026-10-04 05:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%0.5%2026-10-04 05:55