The School of Odds
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Adelaide 36ers v Cairns Taipans

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC

Final: Adelaide 36ers 83–69 Cairns Taipans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adelaide 36ers (Local)

Prediction 73.44%1.36fair odd
EV -0.859%
Edge -0.636%
Kelly -2.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.24%73.59%73.42%76.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.291.291.3581.30%77.33%77.52%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cairns Taipans (Visit)

Prediction 26.56%3.76fair odd
EV +6.25%
Edge +1.56%
Kelly +2.08%
Growth +0.130%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.81%26.41%26.58%31.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.563.604.0034.48%28.06%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaide 36ers (Local): 73.44%; Cairns Taipans (Visit): 26.56%. For Cairns Taipans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -8.20%E -6.56%K -32.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +6.25%E +1.56%K +2.08%G +0.130%5.0%2026-09-27 04:55
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -8.20%E -6.56%K -32.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +6.25%E +1.56%K +2.08%G +0.130%5.0%2026-09-27 04:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -8.20%E -6.56%K -32.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +6.25%E +1.56%K +2.08%G +0.130%5.0%2026-09-27 04:40
Bet Right🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -9.67%E -7.86%K -42.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV +0.937%E +0.247%K +0.335%G +0.003%7.6%2026-09-27 05:40
Dabble (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -6.00%E -4.69%K -21.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -0.391%E -0.104%K -0.142%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-27 05:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.25%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.16%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.75%EV -1.19%E -0.319%K -0.437%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-27 05:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -6.73%E -5.30%K -24.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -1.72%E -0.465%K -0.637%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-27 05:45
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.78%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.16%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.22%EV -3.58%E -0.986%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-27 06:00
SportsBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.73%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.16%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.27%EV -3.84%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-27 05:39
TAB🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -6.00%E -4.69%K -21.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -4.38%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-27 05:55
Coolbet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.27%E -4.08%K -18.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.03%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 01:20
Betsson🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -6.00%E -4.69%K -21.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -9.69%E -2.85%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-27 05:20
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.33%E -1.75%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -11.02%E -3.29%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-27 05:20
TABtouch🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.33%E -1.75%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -11.02%E -3.29%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 09:55
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.33%E -1.75%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -11.02%E -3.29%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 09:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.33%E -1.75%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -11.02%E -3.29%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 09:55
Unibet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.33%E -1.75%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -11.02%E -3.29%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 09:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.06%E -2.32%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -11.02%E -3.29%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 09:54
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -0.859%E -0.636%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -22.97%E -7.92%K -12.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-26 05:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%0.8%2026-09-27 05:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%0.8%2026-09-27 05:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43%0.8%2026-09-27 05:55