The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Utah Jazz v Atlanta Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-07-04 21:05 UTC

Final: Utah Jazz 103–102 Atlanta Hawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Utah Jazz (Local)

Prediction 54.86%1.82fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.16%54.89%54.77%56.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.741.741.7859.88%57.55%57.47%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlanta Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 45.14%2.22fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.732%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.67%45.11%45.23%46.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.092.102.1849.50%47.79%47.62%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Utah Jazz (Local): 54.86%; Atlanta Hawks (Visit): 45.14%. For Atlanta Hawks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.18, with an expected value of -1.60%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -2.35%E -1.32%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -8.82%E -4.37%K -8.65%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 20:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -2.35%E -1.32%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -8.82%E -4.37%K -8.65%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 21:00
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.90%E -1.64%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.21%E -2.48%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-04 21:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.90%E -1.64%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.21%E -2.48%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-04 20:54
ReBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.44%E -1.96%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.11%E -2.94%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-04 20:59
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -3.99%E -2.28%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -8.82%E -4.37%K -8.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-04 21:00
Fanatics🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.54%E -2.61%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.95%E -1.37%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-04 21:00
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.54%E -2.61%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.95%E -1.37%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-04 20:57
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.54%E -2.61%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.46%E -3.64%K -7.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-04 21:00
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -6.74%E -3.96%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -2.05%E -0.944%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-04 21:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.74%E -3.96%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.46%E -3.64%K -7.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-04 20:59
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -7.29%E -4.31%K -10.56%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -1.60%E -0.732%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 21:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.82%EV -8.38%E -5.02%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.18%EV -4.76%E -2.25%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 20:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 55.33%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.67%2.7%2026-07-04 21:00