The School of Odds
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Toronto Raptors v Houston Rockets

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 01:30 UTC

Final: Toronto Raptors 102–89 Houston Rockets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Raptors (Local)

Prediction 55.11%1.81fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.77%55.27%55.21%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.721.731.7861.73%58.14%57.80%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Houston Rockets (Visit)

Prediction 44.89%2.23fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.563%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%44.73%44.79%46.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.062.122.122.2048.54%47.12%47.17%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle1.78I 56.18%NM 53.77%EV -1.91%E -1.07%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.23%EV -7.07%E -3.42%K -6.61%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-12 01:25
Bovada1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.46%E -1.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.73%E -2.73%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-11 23:19
Fanatics1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.11%E -2.36%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.48%E -1.62%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-12 00:08
Hard Rock Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.11%E -2.36%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.48%E -1.62%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-12 00:09
DraftKings1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -4.11%E -2.36%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -3.93%E -1.84%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-11 23:19
SportsBet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.11%E -2.36%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.73%E -2.73%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 00:30
ReBet1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.66%E -2.70%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.83%E -2.28%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-12 00:14
BetRivers1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -4.66%E -2.70%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -7.52%E -3.65%K -7.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 23:25
FanDuel1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.21%E -3.03%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.83%E -2.28%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 00:29
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.32%E -3.72%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.48%E -1.62%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 01:19
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.32%E -3.72%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.48%E -1.62%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 01:19
Betr (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.87%E -4.06%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -5.73%E -2.73%K -5.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-12 00:09
Marathon Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -7.42%E -4.42%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -5.73%E -2.73%K -5.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 00:35
theScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -10.72%E -6.62%K -17.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -1.24%E -0.563%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-11 14:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.81I 55.25%NM 53.71%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.29%2.9%2026-07-12 01:20