San Antonio Spurs v Los Angeles Lakers

Kickoff: 2026-07-06 23:30 UTC

Final: San Antonio Spurs 84–88 Los Angeles Lakers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

55%

45%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

San Antonio Spurs (Local)

Prediction 54.61%1.83fair odd

EV -0.609%

Edge -0.334%

Kelly -0.742%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.23%54.53%54.26%56.27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.671.731.731.8259.88%57.69%57.80%54.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Los Angeles Lakers (Visit)

Prediction 45.39%2.20fair odd

EV -0.143%

Edge -0.065%

Kelly -0.119%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.73%45.47%45.74%47.77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.992.092.102.2050.25%47.92%47.62%45.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -0.609%E -0.334%K -0.742%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -9.22%E -4.61%K -9.22%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-06 23:10
SportsBet	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -0.609%E -0.334%K -0.742%G +0.000%	1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -9.68%E -4.86%K -9.77%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-06 23:05
DraftKings	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.34%E -1.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.68%E -2.23%K -4.26%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-06 23:20
Hard Rock Bet	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.34%E -1.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.68%E -2.23%K -4.26%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-06 23:05
ReBet	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -4.43%E -2.53%K -5.91%G +0.000%	2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -5.14%E -2.46%K -4.71%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-06 23:20
Bovada	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.98%E -2.86%K -6.73%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.41%E -1.12%K -2.10%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-07-06 17:13
theScore Bet	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.98%E -2.86%K -6.73%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.95%E -3.39%K -6.62%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-06 23:05
Pinnacle	1.73I 57.80%NM 55.18%EV -5.52%E -3.19%K -7.57%G +0.000%	2.13I 46.95%NM 44.82%EV -3.32%E -1.56%K -2.94%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-06 23:15
Marathon Bet	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.26%EV -6.07%E -3.53%K -8.43%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 45.74%EV -7.41%E -3.63%K -7.12%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-07-06 23:25
Fanatics	1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -6.62%E -3.87%K -9.32%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -0.143%E -0.065%K -0.119%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-07-06 23:20
BetRivers	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.16%E -4.21%K -10.23%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.68%E -2.23%K -4.26%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-06 09:35
Betr (AU)	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.16%E -4.21%K -10.23%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.95%E -3.39%K -6.62%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-06 23:19
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -8.25%E -4.91%K -12.14%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -2.41%E -1.12%K -2.10%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-06 15:10
Neds	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -8.25%E -4.91%K -12.14%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -2.41%E -1.12%K -2.10%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-06 15:10
Fliff	1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -8.80%E -5.27%K -13.13%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -9.22%E -4.61%K -9.22%G +0.000%	9.9%	2026-07-06 23:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.96%	2.16I 46.30%NM 45.04%	2.8%	2026-07-06 23:05