The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sacramento Kings v Golden State Warriors Blue

Kickoff: 2026-07-05 21:10 UTC

Final: Sacramento Kings 91–85 Golden State Warriors Blue

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sacramento Kings (Local)

Prediction 64.02%1.56fair odd
EV +4.36%
Edge +2.67%
Kelly +6.92%
Growth +0.302%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.42%63.40%64.71%67.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.481.441.6372.46%67.73%69.44%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Golden State Warriors Blue (Visit)

Prediction 35.98%2.78fair odd
EV +2.53%
Edge +0.888%
Kelly +1.37%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.94%36.60%35.29%41.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.292.612.642.8543.67%38.31%37.88%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sacramento Kings (Local): 64.02%; Golden State Warriors Blue (Visit): 35.98%. For Sacramento Kings (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.56. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.63, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV +4.36%E +2.67%K +6.92%G +0.302%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -17.61%E -7.69%K -13.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 21:05
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV +3.72%E +2.30%K +6.00%G +0.223%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -17.25%E -7.50%K -13.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-05 21:04
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -0.123%E -0.079%K -0.219%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -10.06%E -4.02%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-05 21:05
ReBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.32%EV -2.04%E -1.34%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.68%EV -8.98%E -3.55%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-05 20:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.17%E -4.94%K -15.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.46%E -2.49%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-05 20:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.71%EV -7.81%E -5.42%K -17.74%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.29%EV -5.02%E -1.90%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-05 20:59
Fanatics🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -8.45%E -5.91%K -19.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -1.07%E -0.388%K -0.609%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-05 21:05
Bovada🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -10.37%E -7.40%K -25.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV +2.53%E +0.888%K +1.37%G +0.035%6.5%2026-07-05 21:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -10.37%E -7.40%K -25.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV +0.733%E +0.262%K +0.407%G +0.003%7.1%2026-07-05 21:04
theScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -10.37%E -7.40%K -25.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -1.07%E -0.388%K -0.609%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-05 21:04
Fliff🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -11.65%E -8.44%K -30.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -2.86%E -1.06%K -1.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-05 21:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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