The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sacramento Kings v Boston Celtics

Kickoff: 2026-07-16 00:00 UTC

Final: Sacramento Kings 76–82 Boston Celtics

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sacramento Kings (Local)

Prediction 32.35%3.09fair odd
EV +5.15%
Edge +1.58%
Kelly +2.29%
Growth +0.118%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.79%32.42%32.46%36.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.942.953.2539.22%34.01%33.90%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boston Celtics (Visit)

Prediction 67.65%1.48fair odd
EV +0.116%
Edge +0.079%
Kelly +0.242%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.28%67.58%67.54%71.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.401.401.4876.34%71.33%71.43%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sacramento Kings (Local): 32.35%; Boston Celtics (Visit): 67.65%. For Sacramento Kings (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.09. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV +5.15%E +1.58%K +2.29%G +0.118%1.37I 72.99%NM 70.35%EV -7.32%E -5.35%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-15 23:55
Marathon Bet3.24I 30.86%NM 28.79%EV +4.83%E +1.49%K +2.15%G +0.104%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.21%EV -11.38%E -8.69%K -36.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-15 23:50
BetOnline.ag3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.94%E -0.980%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.94%E -2.78%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-15 23:19
LowVig.ag3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.94%E -0.980%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.94%E -2.78%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-15 23:18
BetMGM3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.94%E -0.980%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.30%E -3.78%K -13.24%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-15 23:55
ReBet2.99I 33.44%NM 31.89%EV -3.26%E -1.09%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.11%EV -5.30%E -3.78%K -13.24%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-15 23:50
FanDuel2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -3.59%E -1.20%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -5.30%E -3.78%K -13.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-15 23:50
SportsBet2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -3.59%E -1.20%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -5.30%E -3.78%K -13.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-15 23:50
Caesars2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -4.23%E -1.43%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.58%EV -3.94%E -2.78%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-15 23:20
Bovada2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -4.56%E -1.54%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.27%E -2.28%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-15 23:50
Fanatics2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.56%E -1.54%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.94%E -2.78%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-15 23:45
DraftKings2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.56%E -1.54%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.94%E -2.78%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-15 23:35
Hard Rock Bet2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -4.56%E -1.54%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -6.65%E -4.82%K -17.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-15 23:55
Pinnacle2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -6.17%E -2.13%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -4.62%E -3.28%K -11.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-15 23:55
Ladbrokes (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.17%E -2.13%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.30%E -3.78%K -13.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-15 23:55
Neds2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.17%E -2.13%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.30%E -3.78%K -13.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-15 23:55
Betr (AU)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -7.79%E -2.73%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -5.97%E -4.30%K -15.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-15 23:40
theScore Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -7.79%E -2.73%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -6.65%E -4.82%K -17.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-15 23:50
Fliff2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -9.41%E -3.36%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.83%EV -5.97%E -4.30%K -15.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-15 23:50
MyBookie.ag2.79I 35.84%NM 33.41%EV -9.73%E -3.49%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.59%EV -5.30%E -3.78%K -13.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-15 23:55
BetRivers2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -17.50%E -6.86%K -11.29%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV +0.116%E +0.079%K +0.242%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-15 20:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97%0.7%2026-07-15 23:55
ProphetX3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43%2.2%2026-07-15 23:55
Novig3.17I 31.55%NM 30.18%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.82%4.5%2026-07-15 23:55