Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Portland Trail Blazers v Orlando Magic

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 23:15 UTC

Final: Portland Trail Blazers 105–112 Orlando Magic

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Portland Trail Blazers (Local)

Prediction 39.62%2.52fair odd
EV +5.00%
Edge +1.89%
Kelly +3.03%
Growth +0.151%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.30%40.04%39.65%44.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.332.302.6546.51%42.89%43.48%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Orlando Magic (Visit)

Prediction 60.38%1.66fair odd
EV +2.64%
Edge +1.56%
Kelly +3.78%
Growth +0.100%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.84%59.96%60.35%63.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.591.581.7066.23%62.78%63.49%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Portland Trail Blazers (Local): 39.62%; Orlando Magic (Visit): 60.38%. For Portland Trail Blazers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.52. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV +5.00%E +1.89%K +3.03%G +0.151%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -8.83%E -5.85%K -17.31%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-12 23:08
Pinnacle2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -2.14%E -0.865%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -6.41%E -4.14%K -11.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-12 22:59
BetRivers2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -2.93%E -1.20%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -8.83%E -5.85%K -17.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-12 23:09
DraftKings2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -4.12%E -1.70%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -4.00%E -2.51%K -6.78%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-12 23:09
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -4.91%E -2.05%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.19%E -1.35%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-12 23:09
Marathon Bet2.39I 41.84%NM 39.03%EV -5.31%E -2.22%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.97%EV -7.62%E -4.98%K -14.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-12 22:59
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.87%E -3.86%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -4.60%E -2.91%K -7.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-12 22:59
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.87%E -3.86%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.21%E -3.32%K -9.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-12 23:09
Hard Rock Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.87%E -3.86%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.21%E -3.32%K -9.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-12 23:09
Fliff2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -10.85%E -4.82%K -8.68%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.62%E -4.98%K -14.38%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-12 23:09
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -12.83%E -5.83%K -10.69%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +0.833%E +0.499%K +1.24%G +0.010%5.3%2026-07-12 23:09
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -12.83%E -5.83%K -10.69%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +0.833%E +0.499%K +1.24%G +0.010%5.3%2026-07-12 23:09
FanDuel2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -14.42%E -6.68%K -12.43%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV +2.64%E +1.56%K +3.78%G +0.100%5.1%2026-07-12 23:09
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -14.81%E -6.89%K -12.88%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV +2.64%E +1.56%K +3.78%G +0.100%5.3%2026-07-12 23:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-07-12 23:09