The School of Odds
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Portland Trail Blazers v Minnesota Timberwolves

Kickoff: 2026-07-14 03:00 UTC

Final: Portland Trail Blazers 111–84 Minnesota Timberwolves

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Portland Trail Blazers (Local)

Prediction 34.55%2.89fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.536%
Kelly -0.825%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.94%34.69%34.50%39.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.692.712.8541.67%37.23%36.97%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit)

Prediction 65.45%1.53fair odd
EV +1.44%
Edge +0.932%
Kelly +2.63%
Growth +0.038%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.76%65.31%65.50%67.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.471.461.5571.43%68.11%68.49%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Portland Trail Blazers (Local): 34.55%; Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit): 65.45%. For Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -17.08%E -7.11%K -12.20%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV +1.44%E +0.932%K +2.63%G +0.038%6.2%2026-07-14 02:55
FanDuel2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%EV -11.55%E -4.51%K -7.40%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%EV -0.519%E -0.341%K -0.998%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-14 02:45
Bovada2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -8.44%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -1.17%E -0.777%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-14 02:54
SportsBet2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -10.86%E -4.21%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -1.17%E -0.777%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-14 02:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.89%E -4.66%K -7.67%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.83%E -1.22%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-14 02:55
Neds2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.89%E -4.66%K -7.67%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.83%E -1.22%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-14 02:55
BetOnline.ag2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -4.29%E -1.55%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -2.48%E -1.67%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-14 02:50
DraftKings2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -3.25%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.45%E -3.05%K -9.66%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-14 02:50
Pinnacle2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -6.02%E -2.21%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -4.45%E -3.05%K -9.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-14 02:55
Fanatics2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.25%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.10%E -3.52%K -11.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-14 02:55
ReBet2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -1.87%E -0.659%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -5.75%E -4.00%K -13.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-14 02:55
Hard Rock Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.25%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.41%E -4.48%K -14.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-14 02:54
theScore Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.71%E -2.49%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.41%E -4.48%K -14.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-14 02:55
Marathon Bet2.71I 36.90%NM 34.38%EV -6.36%E -2.35%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.62%EV -7.06%E -4.97%K -16.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-14 02:55
Fliff2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -6.71%E -2.49%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.06%E -4.97%K -16.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-14 02:55
BetRivers2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -1.53%E -0.536%K -0.825%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -8.37%E -5.98%K -20.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-13 22:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.00%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.00%2.1%2026-07-14 02:55