The School of Odds

Orlando Magic v Charlotte Hornets

Kickoff: 2026-07-09 23:45 UTC

Final: Orlando Magic 74–86 Charlotte Hornets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Orlando Magic (Local)

Prediction 46.53%2.15fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.48%46.87%46.75%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.882.022.052.1053.19%49.38%48.78%47.62%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Charlotte Hornets (Visit)

Prediction 53.47%1.87fair odd
EV +0.526%
Edge +0.280%
Kelly +0.598%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%53.13%53.25%54.52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.711.771.761.8858.48%56.63%56.82%53.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -12.53%E -6.66%K -14.23%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV +0.526%E +0.280%K +0.598%G +0.003%6.4%2026-07-09 19:54
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 22:49
Fanatics2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 22:49
Pinnacle2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -4.15%E -2.01%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -4.82%E -2.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 23:00
Bovada2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.29%E -1.09%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.36%E -3.03%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 23:39
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.36%E -3.03%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-09 22:50
FanDuel2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -3.22%E -1.55%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -5.89%E -3.35%K -7.75%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 23:39
SportsBet2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -3.69%E -1.78%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.89%E -3.35%K -7.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 23:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.43%E -3.67%K -8.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 23:20
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.43%E -3.67%K -8.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 23:20
Hard Rock Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.96%E -4.00%K -9.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-09 23:35
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.96%E -4.00%K -9.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-09 23:19
Marathon Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -8.56%E -5.01%K -12.06%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-09 23:19
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 47.24%EV -11.13%E -5.83%K -12.23%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.76%EV -8.56%E -5.01%K -12.06%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-09 23:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.96I 51.02%NM 46.45%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.55%9.8%2026-07-09 23:40