The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Oklahoma City Thunder v Denver Nuggets

Kickoff: 2026-07-15 01:00 UTC

Final: Oklahoma City Thunder 103–106 Denver Nuggets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oklahoma City Thunder (Local)

Prediction 47.05%2.13fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.564%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.74%47.13%47.04%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.022.002.1051.28%49.59%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Denver Nuggets (Visit)

Prediction 52.95%1.89fair odd
EV -0.993%
Edge -0.531%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%52.87%52.96%54.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.791.781.8756.82%55.74%56.18%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oklahoma City Thunder (Local): 47.05%; Denver Nuggets (Visit): 52.95%. For Denver Nuggets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.87, with an expected value of -0.993%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.18%E -0.564%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -6.29%E -3.55%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-15 00:30
Hard Rock Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.18%E -0.564%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -6.29%E -3.55%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-15 00:35
ReBet2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -3.07%E -1.49%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -6.29%E -3.55%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-15 00:49
SportsBet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.54%E -1.73%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.76%E -3.23%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-15 00:49
FanDuel2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.01%E -1.96%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.76%E -3.23%K -7.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-15 00:49
BetOnline.ag2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -4.48%E -2.21%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -4.17%E -2.30%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-15 00:29
Pinnacle2.01I 49.75%NM 47.52%EV -5.42%E -2.70%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.48%EV -3.64%E -2.00%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-15 00:45
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.89%E -2.95%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.11%E -1.70%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-15 00:48
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.89%E -2.95%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.29%E -3.55%K -8.17%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-15 00:49
BetRivers2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -5.89%E -2.95%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -6.82%E -3.87%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-15 00:54
Neds1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -6.83%E -3.45%K -6.97%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -3.64%E -2.00%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-15 00:19
Ladbrokes (AU)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -6.83%E -3.45%K -6.97%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -3.64%E -2.00%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-15 00:19
Betr (AU)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -6.83%E -3.45%K -6.97%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -6.29%E -3.55%K -8.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-15 00:54
Marathon Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 47.33%EV -7.30%E -3.71%K -7.53%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.67%EV -6.29%E -3.55%K -8.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-15 00:50
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -8.24%E -4.23%K -8.68%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -0.993%E -0.531%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-15 00:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.06I 48.54%NM 47.72%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.28%1.7%2026-07-15 00:55