The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Oklahoma City Thunder v Dallas Mavericks

Kickoff: 2026-07-16 20:00 UTC

Final: Oklahoma City Thunder 87–97 Dallas Mavericks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oklahoma City Thunder (Local)

Prediction 49.35%2.03fair odd
EV +1.16%
Edge +0.565%
Kelly +1.10%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.75%49.28%49.87%56.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.911.912.0558.48%52.36%52.36%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dallas Mavericks (Visit)

Prediction 50.65%1.97fair odd
EV +11.44%
Edge +5.20%
Kelly +9.53%
Growth +1.09%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.73%50.72%50.13%53.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.881.862.2055.56%53.07%53.76%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oklahoma City Thunder (Local): 49.35%; Dallas Mavericks (Visit): 50.65%. For Dallas Mavericks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.97. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -15.62%E -9.13%K -22.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV +11.44%E +5.20%K +9.53%G +1.09%3.9%2026-07-16 19:30
BetRivers1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV -10.19%E -5.60%K -12.43%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -1.73%E -0.891%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-16 19:35
Pinnacle1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -7.23%E -3.85%K -8.22%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -2.24%E -1.16%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-16 19:50
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.75%E -3.01%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.25%E -1.70%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-16 19:55
Hard Rock Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.75%E -3.01%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.25%E -1.70%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-16 19:55
Bovada1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.75%E -3.01%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.25%E -1.70%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-16 19:54
ReBet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.75%E -3.01%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -3.76%E -1.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-16 19:55
theScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.72%E -4.13%K -8.88%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.28%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-16 19:55
Fliff1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -9.70%E -5.30%K -11.69%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -5.28%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-16 19:55
Marathon Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.87%EV -7.72%E -4.13%K -8.88%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.13%EV -5.78%E -3.11%K -6.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-16 19:55
BetMGM1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -2.30%E -1.16%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -6.29%E -3.40%K -7.40%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-16 19:50
FanDuel1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.28%E -1.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.29%E -3.40%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-16 19:55
SportsBet1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -2.79%E -1.42%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -6.79%E -3.69%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-16 19:55
Betr (AU)1.89I 52.91%NM 49.33%EV -6.74%E -3.57%K -7.57%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.67%EV -6.79%E -3.69%K -8.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-16 19:50
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -1.31%E -0.655%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-16 19:45
Neds1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -3.28%E -1.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-16 19:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -3.28%E -1.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-16 19:50
MyBookie.ag1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -6.24%E -3.29%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-16 19:53
Caesars2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV +1.16%E +0.565%K +1.10%G +0.013%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-16 19:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.61%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.39%0.8%2026-07-16 19:55
Novig2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%1.1%2026-07-16 19:55
ProphetX2.05I 48.78%NM 47.84%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.16%2.0%2026-07-16 19:55