The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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New York Knicks v Golden State Warriors

Kickoff: 2026-07-16 23:00 UTC

Final: New York Knicks 77–87 Golden State Warriors

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Knicks (Local)

Prediction 29.69%3.37fair odd
EV +6.29%
Edge +1.76%
Kelly +2.44%
Growth +0.153%

assuming max odds 3.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.03%29.63%29.76%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.863.183.203.5834.97%31.47%31.25%27.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Golden State Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 70.31%1.42fair odd
EV +0.543%
Edge +0.380%
Kelly +1.26%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.67%70.37%70.24%73.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.351.351.4379.37%73.87%74.07%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Knicks (Local): 29.69%; Golden State Warriors (Visit): 70.31%. For New York Knicks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.58, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet3.58I 27.93%NM 26.03%EV +6.29%E +1.76%K +2.44%G +0.153%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.97%EV -11.41%E -9.05%K -43.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-16 21:10
BetOnline.ag3.34I 29.94%NM 28.78%EV -0.836%E -0.250%K -0.357%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 71.22%EV -5.08%E -3.76%K -14.52%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-16 22:05
LowVig.ag3.34I 29.94%NM 28.78%EV -0.836%E -0.250%K -0.357%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 71.22%EV -5.08%E -3.76%K -14.52%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-16 22:05
DraftKings3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.51%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.38%E -3.22%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-16 21:23
Hard Rock Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -3.51%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.49%E -4.88%K -19.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-16 15:05
Caesars3.22I 31.06%NM 29.69%EV -4.40%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.31%EV -4.38%E -3.22%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-16 21:35
ReBet3.22I 31.06%NM 29.54%EV -4.40%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.46%EV -5.08%E -3.76%K -14.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-16 22:55
Pinnacle3.21I 31.15%NM 29.45%EV -4.70%E -1.46%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.55%EV -5.78%E -4.32%K -17.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-16 22:50
Fanatics3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.99%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.38%E -3.22%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-16 22:50
BetMGM3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.99%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.38%E -3.22%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-16 11:13
Betr (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -4.99%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -7.19%E -5.45%K -22.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-16 22:50
Bovada3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -6.48%E -2.06%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -2.97%E -2.15%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-16 22:49
BetRivers3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -6.48%E -2.06%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -5.78%E -4.32%K -17.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-16 02:20
Fliff3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -6.48%E -2.06%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -6.49%E -4.88%K -19.66%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-16 22:55
BetUS3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -1.57%E -1.12%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-16 22:55
Neds3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.38%E -3.22%K -12.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-16 11:14
Ladbrokes (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.38%E -3.22%K -12.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-16 11:14
MyBookie.ag3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -5.78%E -4.32%K -17.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-16 21:25
theScore Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.96%E -2.57%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.49%E -4.88%K -19.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-16 17:30
SportsBet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -13.90%E -4.79%K -7.32%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -0.160%E -0.112%K -0.380%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-16 22:55
FanDuel2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -15.09%E -5.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV +0.543%E +0.380%K +1.26%G +0.007%4.9%2026-07-16 22:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38%0.8%2026-07-16 22:55
Novig3.17I 31.55%NM 31.09%1.43I 69.93%NM 68.91%1.5%2026-07-16 22:55
ProphetX3.30I 30.30%NM 29.49%1.38I 72.46%NM 70.51%2.8%2026-07-16 22:55