The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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New York Knicks v Dallas Mavericks

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 00:30 UTC

Final: New York Knicks 88–110 Dallas Mavericks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Knicks (Local)

Prediction 43.53%2.30fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.915%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%43.61%43.60%45.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.182.192.2547.62%45.92%45.66%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dallas Mavericks (Visit)

Prediction 56.47%1.77fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.97%56.39%56.40%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.691.691.7461.73%59.26%59.17%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Knicks (Local): 43.53%; Dallas Mavericks (Visit): 56.47%. For Dallas Mavericks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.74, with an expected value of -1.74%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.06%E -0.915%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.57%E -2.70%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-17 22:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.06%E -0.915%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.57%E -2.70%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-17 22:29
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.06%E -0.915%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.57%E -2.70%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-17 21:49
DraftKings🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -2.49%E -1.11%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -5.13%E -3.05%K -7.54%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-18 00:10
Caesars🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -3.36%E -1.52%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -4.57%E -2.70%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-17 22:34
SportsBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -3.80%E -1.72%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.69%E -3.41%K -8.50%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 23:25
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.23%E -1.92%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.44%E -2.01%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-17 20:22
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.23%E -1.92%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.44%E -2.01%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-17 20:24
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.23%E -1.92%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.13%E -3.05%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 20:25
MyBookie.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.23%E -1.92%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.52%E -5.26%K -13.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-17 22:24
ReBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.56%EV -4.67%E -2.13%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.44%EV -4.57%E -2.70%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 00:25
Pinnacle🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -5.11%E -2.34%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.57%E -2.70%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-18 00:15
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.41%E -2.98%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.74%E -1.00%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-18 00:20
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.41%E -2.98%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.74%E -1.00%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-17 15:59
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.41%E -2.98%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.69%E -3.41%K -8.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 16:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.41%E -2.98%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -6.26%E -3.77%K -9.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 22:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV -6.85%E -3.20%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -6.82%E -4.14%K -10.50%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 23:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -8.59%E -4.09%K -7.81%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -2.87%E -1.67%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-17 18:44
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -8.59%E -4.09%K -7.81%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -2.87%E -1.67%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-17 18:44
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -8.59%E -4.09%K -7.81%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -5.13%E -3.05%K -7.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 19:54
Fliff🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.59%E -4.09%K -7.81%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.82%E -4.14%K -10.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-17 19:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%0.5%2026-07-18 00:25
ProphetX◎2.23I 44.84%NM 44.39%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.61%1.0%2026-07-18 00:25
Novig◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.2%2026-07-18 00:25