The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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New Orleans Pelicans v Phoenix Suns

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 19:00 UTC

Final: New Orleans Pelicans 81–75 Phoenix Suns

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Orleans Pelicans (Local)

Prediction 33.16%3.02fair odd
EV -0.521%
Edge -0.174%
Kelly -0.261%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.93%33.26%33.03%35.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.822.803.0037.04%35.40%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Phoenix Suns (Visit)

Prediction 66.84%1.50fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -3.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.75%66.74%66.97%68.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.421.421.4772.99%70.19%70.42%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Orleans Pelicans (Local): 33.16%; Phoenix Suns (Visit): 66.84%. For New Orleans Pelicans (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -0.521%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -0.521%E -0.174%K -0.261%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -5.09%E -3.58%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-12 18:54
DraftKings2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -2.18%E -0.739%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -5.09%E -3.58%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-12 18:19
Pinnacle2.93I 34.13%NM 32.33%EV -2.84%E -0.970%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.67%EV -6.42%E -4.59%K -16.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 18:55
Marathon Bet2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -3.17%E -1.09%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -8.43%E -6.15%K -22.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-12 18:44
Fanatics2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.84%E -1.32%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.42%E -3.09%K -10.27%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-12 18:45
ReBet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -3.84%E -1.32%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.09%E -3.58%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-12 18:55
Hard Rock Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -5.50%E -1.93%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.09%E -3.58%K -12.11%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 18:44
Betr (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.15%E -2.55%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.42%E -4.59%K -16.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 18:44
Neds2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.08%E -2.13%K -6.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 17:34
Ladbrokes (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.08%E -2.13%K -6.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 17:34
BetRivers2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -4.42%E -3.09%K -10.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 18:54
theScore Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.81%E -3.20%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.42%E -4.59%K -16.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 18:45
FanDuel2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -9.81%E -3.61%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -1.74%E -1.19%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-12 18:14
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -10.47%E -3.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -1.74%E -1.19%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 18:39
Fliff2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -10.47%E -3.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -5.09%E -3.58%K -12.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 18:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63%1.2%2026-07-12 18:49