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Minnesota Timberwolves v Denver Nuggets
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Minnesota Timberwolves (Local)
Prediction 64.86%1.54fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -5.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.31%64.67%65.73%66.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.471.461.5070.92%68.23%68.49%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Denver Nuggets (Visit)
Prediction 35.14%2.85fair odd
EV +0.147%
Edge +0.051%
Kelly +0.079%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.57%35.33%34.27%37.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.672.672.8540.32%37.43%37.38%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -6.60%E -4.58%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV +0.147%E +0.051%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-11 23:24 |
| DraftKings | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -5.30%E -3.63%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -1.61%E -0.575%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-11 23:14 |
| Fanatics | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.95%E -4.10%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.61%E -0.575%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 23:25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.96%EV -6.60%E -4.58%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.04%EV -1.96%E -0.703%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 23:25 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -8.55%E -6.06%K -20.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -3.37%E -1.22%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-11 23:09 |
| ReBet | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.24%EV -5.30%E -3.63%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.76%EV -3.72%E -1.36%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 23:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.95%E -4.10%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.12%E -1.90%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-11 23:14 |
| SportsBet | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -3.36%E -2.25%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -6.88%E -2.60%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-11 23:19 |
| FanDuel | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.92%EV -3.36%E -2.25%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.08%EV -7.23%E -2.74%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-11 23:19 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -5.95%E -4.10%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.64%E -3.32%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-11 23:19 |
| Neds | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.71%E -1.81%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -10.40%E -4.08%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-11 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.71%E -1.81%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -10.40%E -4.08%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-11 22:59 |
| theScore Bet | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -4.01%E -2.71%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -12.15%E -4.86%K -8.10%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-11 22:59 |
| BetRivers | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%EV -2.71%E -1.81%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -12.85%E -5.18%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-11 08:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.97% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.03% | 2.3% | 2026-07-11 23:25 |