The School of Odds

Minnesota Timberwolves v Denver Nuggets

2026-07-11 23:30 UTC — NBA Summer League

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Minnesota Timberwolves (Local)

Prediction 56.70%1.76fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -4.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%57.29%56.70%60.80%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.561.651.681.7164%61%60%58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Denver Nuggets (Visit)

Prediction 43.30%2.31fair odd
EV +4.78%
Edge +1.97%
Kelly +3.36%
Growth +0.161%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.20%42.71%43.30%44.88%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.222.4248%44%45%41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -10.97%E -6.99%K -19.25%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV +4.78%E +1.97%K +3.36%G +0.161%5.0%2026-07-10 05:45
SportsBet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -11.54%E -7.40%K -20.61%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV +4.78%E +1.97%K +3.36%G +0.161%5.4%2026-07-10 05:45
DraftKings1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.74%E -2.82%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.02%E -1.35%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 05:09
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.04%E -1.78%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.75%E -2.16%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-10 05:09
ReBet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.67%EV -4.74%E -2.82%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.33%EV -8.65%E -4.10%K -7.79%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-10 05:09
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.04%E -1.78%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.08%E -4.32%K -8.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-10 05:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (4 combinations) +0.20%Fanatics 1.71 (58.6%) / FanDuel 2.42 (41.4%)Show all 4 combinations
Minnesota Timberwolves (Local)Denver Nuggets (Visit)Margin
Fanatics 1.71 (58.6%)FanDuel 2.42 (41.4%)+0.199%
Fanatics 1.71 (58.6%)SportsBet 2.42 (41.4%)+0.199%
theScore Bet 1.71 (58.6%)FanDuel 2.42 (41.4%)+0.199%
theScore Bet 1.71 (58.6%)SportsBet 2.42 (41.4%)+0.199%