The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Milwaukee Bucks v Phoenix Suns

Kickoff: 2026-07-14 02:00 UTC

Final: Milwaukee Bucks 88–95 Phoenix Suns

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Milwaukee Bucks (Local)

Prediction 41.20%2.43fair odd
EV +4.65%
Edge +1.83%
Kelly +3.02%
Growth +0.140%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.44%40.87%41.23%44.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.312.302.5447.62%43.22%43.48%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Phoenix Suns (Visit)

Prediction 58.80%1.70fair odd
EV -0.040%
Edge -0.023%
Kelly -0.057%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.26%59.13%58.77%62.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.611.621.7065.79%61.92%61.73%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Milwaukee Bucks (Local): 41.20%; Phoenix Suns (Visit): 58.80%. For Milwaukee Bucks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.43. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.65%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV +4.65%E +1.83%K +3.02%G +0.140%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -10.62%E -6.99%K -20.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-14 01:55
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV +3.00%E +1.20%K +2.00%G +0.060%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -9.45%E -6.13%K -17.50%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-14 01:55
Hard Rock Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.18%E -1.35%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-14 00:00
ReBet2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -3.59%E -1.54%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -5.33%E -3.31%K -8.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-13 23:59
Pinnacle2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.83%E -2.09%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-14 01:35
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -1.80%E -1.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-14 01:49
BetOnline.ag2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -1.80%E -1.08%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-14 01:30
DraftKings2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.98%E -1.81%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-14 01:39
Neds2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-13 23:59
Ladbrokes (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.74%E -2.93%K -7.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-14 00:00
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.68%E -4.89%K -13.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-13 22:14
Marathon Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.24%E -2.28%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.68%E -4.89%K -13.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-14 01:54
BetRivers2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -6.06%E -2.66%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-13 16:44
Bovada2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -7.30%E -3.24%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -0.628%E -0.371%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-14 00:43
Fliff2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.30%E -3.24%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.68%E -4.89%K -13.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-14 01:30
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -13.48%E -6.42%K -12.25%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -0.040%E -0.023%K -0.057%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-14 01:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%2.6%2026-07-14 01:55