The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Miami Heat v Toronto Raptors

Kickoff: 2026-07-17 01:00 UTC

Final: Miami Heat 90–99 Toronto Raptors

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Heat (Local)

Prediction 36.08%2.77fair odd
EV -0.412%
Edge -0.149%
Kelly -0.234%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.73%36.09%36.25%38.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.632.652.7640.82%38.08%37.74%36.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Raptors (Visit)

Prediction 63.92%1.56fair odd
EV -0.928%
Edge -0.599%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.25%63.91%63.75%66.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.491.491.5571.43%67.03%67.11%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miami Heat (Local): 36.08%; Toronto Raptors (Visit): 63.92%. For Miami Heat (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.76, with an expected value of -0.412%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel2.76I 36.23%NM 34.44%EV -0.412%E -0.149%K -0.234%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.56%EV -7.32%E -5.05%K -16.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 00:05
SportsBet2.76I 36.23%NM 34.44%EV -0.412%E -0.149%K -0.234%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.56%EV -7.32%E -5.05%K -16.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 00:05
Bovada2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -0.772%E -0.281%K -0.441%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -5.40%E -3.65%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-17 00:48
Betr (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -0.772%E -0.281%K -0.441%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -10.52%E -7.51%K -26.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-17 00:55
Fanatics2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.58%E -0.954%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.40%E -3.65%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 00:55
ReBet2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58%EV -3.30%E -1.23%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42%EV -5.40%E -3.65%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-17 00:55
Pinnacle2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -3.30%E -1.23%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.58%EV -6.04%E -4.11%K -12.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 00:55
Marathon Bet2.68I 37.31%NM 34.79%EV -3.30%E -1.23%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.21%EV -8.60%E -6.01%K -20.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-17 00:54
BetOnline.ag2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -4.38%E -1.65%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -2.21%E -1.44%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-17 00:50
LowVig.ag2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -4.38%E -1.65%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -2.21%E -1.44%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-17 00:35
Hard Rock Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.38%E -1.65%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.12%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-17 00:10
DraftKings2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -4.74%E -1.80%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -3.48%E -2.31%K -6.83%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-17 00:55
BetUS2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -5.10%E -1.94%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -2.21%E -1.44%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-17 00:10
Caesars2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -5.46%E -2.09%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -3.48%E -2.31%K -6.83%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-17 00:10
theScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.18%E -2.38%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.04%E -4.11%K -12.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-17 00:55
BetRivers2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.99%E -3.13%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.12%E -2.75%K -8.25%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 00:10
BetMGM2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -9.79%E -3.92%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -1.57%E -1.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-16 23:54
MyBookie.ag2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -9.79%E -3.92%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -4.76%E -3.20%K -9.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 00:45
Fliff2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -9.79%E -3.92%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.40%E -3.65%K -11.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-17 00:20
Neds2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -11.60%E -4.73%K -8.00%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -0.928%E -0.599%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 23:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -11.60%E -4.73%K -8.00%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -0.928%E -0.599%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 23:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%0.9%2026-07-17 00:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.03%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.97%1.9%2026-07-17 00:55
ProphetX2.78I 35.97%NM 34.89%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.11%3.1%2026-07-17 00:55