The School of Odds
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Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 20:05 UTC

Final: Miami Heat 119–86 Milwaukee Bucks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Heat (Local)

Prediction 34.14%2.93fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -0.581%
Kelly -0.890%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.39%34.03%34.27%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.732.752.8839.22%36.60%36.36%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Milwaukee Bucks (Visit)

Prediction 65.86%1.52fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.808%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.96%65.97%65.73%67.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.451.451.5072.46%69.16%68.97%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -1.67%E -0.581%K -0.890%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -9.12%E -6.61%K -23.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-10 18:50
Pinnacle2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%EV -3.04%E -1.07%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%EV -5.82%E -4.07%K -13.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 19:55
Fanatics2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.40%E -1.57%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.19%E -2.17%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-10 19:59
DraftKings2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -4.40%E -1.57%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.85%E -2.63%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-10 19:50
ReBet2.79I 35.84%NM 34.20%EV -4.75%E -1.70%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.80%EV -4.51%E -3.11%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 19:54
Bovada2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -6.11%E -2.22%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -2.53%E -1.71%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-10 20:00
Hard Rock Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.11%E -2.22%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.16%E -3.59%K -11.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 19:55
Marathon Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -6.11%E -2.22%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -7.14%E -5.06%K -17.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-10 19:55
Betr (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -6.11%E -2.22%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -7.14%E -5.06%K -17.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-10 19:59
FanDuel2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -7.14%E -2.62%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -3.19%E -2.17%K -6.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 19:49
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.82%E -2.90%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.19%E -2.17%K -6.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 19:49
theScore Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -7.82%E -2.90%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -5.82%E -4.07%K -13.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 19:55
Fliff2.65I 37.74%NM 34.41%EV -9.53%E -3.59%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 65.59%EV -8.46%E -6.08%K -21.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-10 20:00
Neds2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.94%E -5.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.21%E -0.808%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 19:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -12.94%E -5.07%K -8.35%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -1.21%E -0.808%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 19:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.05%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.95%2.6%2026-07-10 20:00