Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks

2026-07-10 20:00 — NBA Summer League

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

47%

53%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Miami Heat (Local)

Prediction 46.85%2.13fair odd

EV +1.20%

Edge +0.555%

Kelly +1.03%

Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.04%46.38%46.85%47.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.992.062.022.16MINMEANMEDIANMAX

All estimators

Consensus probabilities

44.04%2.271Min

47.78%2.093Max

46.38%2.156Mean

46.85%2.134Median

46.85%2.134IQM

46.40%2.155Margin-weighted

Milwaukee Bucks (Visit)

Prediction 53.15%1.88fair odd

EV -2.74%

Edge -1.50%

Kelly -3.30%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.22%53.62%53.15%55.96%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.701.761.771.83MINMEANMEDIANMAX

All estimators

Consensus probabilities

52.22%1.915Min

55.96%1.787Max

53.62%1.865Mean

53.15%1.882Median

53.15%1.882IQM

53.60%1.866Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Miami Heat (Local) ▼	Milwaukee Bucks (Visit)	Margin	Updated
FanDuel	2.16I 46.30% NM 44.04%EV +1.20% E +0.555% K +1.03% G +0.012%	1.70I 58.82% NM 55.96%EV -9.65% E -5.67% K -13.78% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-09 03:10
SportsBet	2.14I 46.73% NM 44.42%EV +0.262% E +0.122% K +0.230% G +0.001%	1.71I 58.48% NM 55.58%EV -9.12% E -5.33% K -12.84% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-09 03:10
Fanatics	2.05I 48.78% NM 46.75%EV -3.95% E -1.93% K -3.77% G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56% NM 53.25%EV -4.33% E -2.41% K -5.42% G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-09 03:24
DraftKings	2.00I 50.00% NM 47.78%EV -6.30% E -3.15% K -6.30% G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64% NM 52.22%EV -2.74% E -1.50% K -3.30% G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-09 03:20
theScore Bet	2.00I 50.00% NM 46.95%EV -6.30% E -3.15% K -6.30% G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50% NM 53.05%EV -5.93% E -3.35% K -7.70% G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-07-09 03:25
ReBet	1.99I 50.25% NM 46.93%EV -6.77% E -3.40% K -6.83% G +0.000%	1.76I 56.82% NM 53.07%EV -6.46% E -3.67% K -8.50% G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-09 03:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Miami Heat (Local)	Milwaukee Bucks (Visit)	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.01I 99.01% NM 50.00%	1.01I 99.01% NM 50.00%	98.0%	2026-07-09 01:20