Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Memphis Grizzlies v Houston Rockets

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 22:33 UTC

Final: Memphis Grizzlies 101–90 Houston Rockets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

70%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Memphis Grizzlies (Local)

Prediction 69.65%1.44fair odd

EV +0.998%

Edge +0.688%

Kelly +2.22%

Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

65.48%69.33%70.15%72.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.321.381.371.4575.76%72.65%73.26%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Houston Rockets (Visit)

Prediction 30.35%3.30fair odd

EV +6.21%

Edge +1.78%

Kelly +2.49%

Growth +0.154%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.39%30.67%29.85%34.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.753.083.143.5036.36%32.43%31.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Memphis Grizzlies (Local): 69.65%; Houston Rockets (Visit): 30.35%. For Houston Rockets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -8.06%E -6.10%K -25.18%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +6.21%E +1.78%K +2.49%G +0.154%	4.3%	2026-07-18 22:09
Bovada🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.64%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV +0.143%E +0.043%K +0.062%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-07-18 22:25
Caesars🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.84%EV -5.97%E -4.42%K -17.05%G +0.000%	3.28I 30.49%NM 29.16%EV -0.464%E -0.141%K -0.203%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-18 21:00
LowVig.ag🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 70.35%EV -4.57%E -3.34%K -12.36%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -1.37%E -0.423%K -0.611%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-07-18 22:20
Fanatics🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.27%E -3.88%K -14.64%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -1.37%E -0.423%K -0.611%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-18 22:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.36%E -5.53%K -22.31%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.37%E -0.423%K -0.611%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-18 22:10
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 70.15%EV -4.57%E -3.34%K -12.36%G +0.000%	3.22I 31.06%NM 29.85%EV -2.28%E -0.709%K -1.03%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-07-18 22:20
ReBet🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.46%EV -5.97%E -4.42%K -17.05%G +0.000%	3.22I 31.06%NM 29.54%EV -2.28%E -0.709%K -1.03%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-18 22:15
Pinnacle🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -6.66%E -4.97%K -19.60%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -2.89%E -0.904%K -1.31%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-18 22:25
BetUS🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.74%EV -3.88%E -2.81%K -10.21%G +0.000%	3.18I 31.45%NM 30.26%EV -3.50%E -1.10%K -1.60%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-07-18 21:10
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -6.66%E -4.97%K -19.60%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.93%E -1.91%K -2.82%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-07-18 22:20
Marathon Bet🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 69.55%EV -6.66%E -4.97%K -19.60%G +0.000%	3.06I 32.68%NM 30.45%EV -7.14%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-18 22:15
Betr (AU)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -5.97%E -4.42%K -17.05%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.44%E -2.44%K -3.63%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-07-18 21:10
FanDuel🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.59%EV -1.79%E -1.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%	2.94I 34.01%NM 32.41%EV -10.78%E -3.67%K -5.56%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-18 22:00
SportsBet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -1.79%E -1.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%	2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -11.08%E -3.78%K -5.74%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-18 22:00
BetMGM🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV +0.301%E +0.209%K +0.684%G +0.002%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -13.51%E -4.74%K -7.30%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-07-18 19:40
Fliff🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -3.88%E -2.81%K -10.21%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -13.51%E -4.74%K -7.30%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-18 20:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV +0.998%E +0.688%K +2.22%G +0.022%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -16.55%E -6.02%K -9.46%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-18 19:40
Neds🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV +0.998%E +0.688%K +2.22%G +0.022%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -16.55%E -6.02%K -9.46%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-18 19:40
BetRivers🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -0.395%E -0.277%K -0.920%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -16.55%E -6.02%K -9.46%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-17 21:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.41I 70.92%NM 69.94%	3.28I 30.49%NM 30.06%	1.4%	2026-07-18 22:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.38I 72.46%NM 71.43%	3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%	1.4%	2026-07-18 22:30
ProphetX◎	1.38I 72.46%NM 70.82%	3.35I 29.85%NM 29.18%	2.3%	2026-07-18 22:29