The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Memphis Grizzlies v Dallas Mavericks

Kickoff: 2026-07-13 23:00 UTC

Final: Memphis Grizzlies 88–96 Dallas Mavericks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Memphis Grizzlies (Local)

Prediction 76.23%1.31fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -8.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.77%76.27%76.29%78.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.241.241.2881.97%80.40%80.65%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dallas Mavericks (Visit)

Prediction 23.77%4.21fair odd
EV +3.42%
Edge +0.786%
Kelly +1.02%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.90%23.73%23.71%26.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.953.954.3527.78%25.31%25.32%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Memphis Grizzlies (Local): 76.23%; Dallas Mavericks (Visit): 23.77%. For Dallas Mavericks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.21. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -7.00%E -5.74%K -31.84%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV +3.42%E +0.786%K +1.02%G +0.035%5.0%2026-07-13 22:49
DraftKings1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.48%E -4.42%K -22.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -0.149%E -0.035%K -0.046%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-13 22:29
FanDuel1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -6.24%E -5.07%K -27.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -0.149%E -0.035%K -0.046%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-13 22:49
Fanatics1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.72%E -3.77%K -18.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -2.53%E -0.616%K -0.815%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-13 22:45
BetOnline.ag1.26I 79.37%NM 76.32%EV -3.96%E -3.14%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.68%EV -3.48%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-13 22:55
Hard Rock Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.72%E -3.77%K -18.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.90%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-13 22:50
ReBet1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.48%E -4.42%K -22.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.90%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-13 22:49
Bovada1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.96%E -3.14%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -6.09%E -1.54%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-13 22:50
BetRivers1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -6.24%E -5.07%K -27.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -6.09%E -1.54%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-13 22:35
Betr (AU)1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -6.24%E -5.07%K -27.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -7.28%E -1.87%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-13 22:39
Fliff1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.00%E -5.74%K -31.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -7.28%E -1.87%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-13 22:45
Pinnacle1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -4.72%E -3.77%K -18.87%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.46%EV -8.23%E -2.13%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-13 22:50
theScore Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -7.00%E -5.74%K -31.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -9.66%E -2.54%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-13 22:49
Marathon Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -5.48%E -4.42%K -22.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -10.85%E -2.89%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-13 22:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -2.43%E -1.90%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -14.41%E -4.00%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-13 22:35
Neds1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -2.43%E -1.90%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -14.41%E -4.00%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-13 22:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07%1.3%2026-07-13 22:55