The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Los Angeles Lakers v Golden State Warriors

Kickoff: 2026-07-19 00:35 UTC

Final: Los Angeles Lakers 88–92 Golden State Warriors

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Los Angeles Lakers (Local)

Prediction 58.53%1.71fair odd
EV -0.507%
Edge -0.298%
Kelly -0.725%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.26%58.30%58.67%60.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.621.621.7064.94%61.69%61.73%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Golden State Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 41.47%2.41fair odd
EV -0.460%
Edge -0.192%
Kelly -0.329%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.85%41.70%41.33%44.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.312.342.4047.62%43.32%42.64%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Los Angeles Lakers (Local): 58.53%; Golden State Warriors (Visit): 41.47%. For Golden State Warriors (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -0.460%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -0.507%E -0.298%K -0.725%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -12.90%E -6.14%K -11.73%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-19 00:35
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.81%EV -1.68%E -0.999%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%EV -8.34%E -3.77%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-19 00:29
Fanatics🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.43%E -2.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-18 23:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.43%E -2.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-19 00:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.43%E -2.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-19 00:30
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.43%E -2.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.61%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 23:10
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.60%E -2.82%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.44%E -2.38%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-19 00:35
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -1.29%E -0.542%K -0.935%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-19 00:25
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-19 00:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-18 23:45
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.61%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-19 00:25
Caesars🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -5.77%E -3.59%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -0.460%E -0.192%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-18 23:35
ReBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -5.77%E -3.59%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -2.95%E -1.26%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-19 00:29
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.36%E -3.97%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 23:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.36%E -3.97%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 23:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.36%E -3.97%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.68%E -2.97%K -5.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-19 00:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%EV -6.36%E -3.97%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -7.51%E -3.37%K -6.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-19 00:29
BetMGM🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -6.94%E -4.37%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -0.460%E -0.192%K -0.329%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-18 23:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.07%EV -7.53%E -4.77%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.93%EV -5.44%E -2.38%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-18 23:40
Fliff🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -9.87%E -6.41%K -18.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.68%E -2.97%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-19 00:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%0.9%2026-07-19 00:30
Novig◎1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%5.1%2026-07-19 00:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 67.52%2.10I 47.62%NM 32.48%46.6%2026-07-19 00:35