The School of Odds
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Golden State Warriors Blue v Milwaukee Bucks

Kickoff: 2026-07-04 19:05 UTC

Final: Golden State Warriors Blue 83–97 Milwaukee Bucks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Golden State Warriors Blue (Local)

Prediction 40.00%2.50fair odd
EV +2.00%
Edge +0.784%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.026%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.96%39.85%40.05%40.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.372.382.5544.44%42.21%42.02%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Milwaukee Bucks (Visit)

Prediction 60.00%1.67fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -4.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.03%60.15%59.95%62.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.581.591.6265.79%63.33%62.89%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Golden State Warriors Blue (Local): 40.00%; Milwaukee Bucks (Visit): 60.00%. For Golden State Warriors Blue (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.50. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV +2.00%E +0.784%K +1.29%G +0.026%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -6.40%E -4.10%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-04 18:59
DraftKings🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -3.20%E -1.32%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -4.60%E -2.89%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-04 19:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.68%EV -3.60%E -1.49%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.32%EV -8.80%E -5.79%K -16.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 18:55
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -4.00%E -1.67%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.80%E -1.73%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-04 18:58
SportsBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -4.80%E -2.02%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -4.60%E -2.89%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-04 19:00
FanDuel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -4.80%E -2.02%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -4.60%E -2.89%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-04 19:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -6.00%E -2.55%K -4.44%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.80%E -1.73%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-04 18:59
ReBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -7.20%E -3.10%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -3.40%E -2.11%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 18:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.00%E -3.48%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.80%E -3.69%K -10.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-04 18:55
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.00%E -3.48%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.80%E -3.69%K -10.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-04 19:00
Fliff🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -10.00%E -4.44%K -8.00%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -8.20%E -5.36%K -15.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-04 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.