The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Golden State Warriors v Memphis Grizzlies

Kickoff: 2026-07-14 23:00 UTC

Final: Golden State Warriors 85–106 Memphis Grizzlies

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Golden State Warriors (Local)

Prediction 59.87%1.67fair odd
EV -0.609%
Edge -0.367%
Kelly -0.922%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.33%59.84%59.93%62.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.601.621.6666.23%62.45%61.73%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Memphis Grizzlies (Visit)

Prediction 40.13%2.49fair odd
EV +0.716%
Edge +0.285%
Kelly +0.474%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.87%40.16%40.07%42.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.342.342.5144.84%42.77%42.64%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Golden State Warriors (Local): 59.87%; Memphis Grizzlies (Visit): 40.13%. For Memphis Grizzlies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.49. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.51, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.716%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle1.53I 65.36%NM 62.13%EV -8.39%E -5.49%K -15.83%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.87%EV +0.716%E +0.285%K +0.474%G +0.003%5.2%2026-07-14 22:44
BetOnline.ag1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.60%E -2.24%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -1.69%E -0.691%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-14 22:54
BetRivers1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -8.39%E -5.49%K -15.83%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -2.49%E -1.03%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-14 22:55
Fanatics1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.00%E -1.85%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -3.70%E -1.54%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-14 22:49
Fliff1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -9.59%E -6.35%K -18.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -3.70%E -1.54%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-14 22:49
DraftKings1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.00%E -1.85%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -5.30%E -2.25%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-14 22:44
Hard Rock Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.00%E -1.85%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.70%E -2.43%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-14 22:54
Bovada1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.00%E -1.85%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.70%E -2.43%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-14 22:54
Marathon Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.15%EV -7.19%E -4.64%K -13.08%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.85%EV -6.11%E -2.61%K -4.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-14 22:54
ReBet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.00%E -1.85%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.71%E -3.35%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-14 22:54
Betr (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -5.40%E -3.42%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -7.71%E -3.35%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-14 22:54
Neds1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -1.81%E -1.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -9.72%E -4.32%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-14 22:39
Ladbrokes (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -1.81%E -1.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -9.72%E -4.32%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-14 22:39
theScore Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -3.60%E -2.24%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -9.72%E -4.32%K -7.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-14 22:45
FanDuel1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -0.609%E -0.367%K -0.922%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -10.12%E -4.52%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-14 22:54
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -0.609%E -0.367%K -0.922%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -10.52%E -4.72%K -8.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-14 22:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83%2.2%2026-07-14 22:54