The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Detroit Pistons v Cleveland Cavaliers

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 20:10 UTC

Final: Detroit Pistons 103–94 Cleveland Cavaliers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Detroit Pistons (Local)

Prediction 45.13%2.22fair odd
EV -0.723%
Edge -0.329%
Kelly -0.603%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.54%45.08%45.74%46.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.092.102.2050.00%47.76%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cleveland Cavaliers (Visit)

Prediction 54.87%1.82fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -2.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.16%54.92%54.26%56.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.731.741.7860.61%57.80%57.47%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Detroit Pistons (Local): 45.13%; Cleveland Cavaliers (Visit): 54.87%. For Detroit Pistons (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.20, with an expected value of -0.723%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -0.723%E -0.329%K -0.603%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -6.17%E -3.61%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-12 19:53
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -0.723%E -0.329%K -0.603%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -6.71%E -3.95%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-12 19:44
Hard Rock Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.98%E -1.39%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.52%E -2.60%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-12 19:39
Pinnacle2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -3.43%E -1.60%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -5.62%E -3.27%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-12 19:54
Marathon Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV -3.43%E -1.60%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -9.46%E -5.73%K -14.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 19:59
ReBet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.33%E -2.04%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.07%E -2.93%K -6.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-12 19:59
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.24%E -2.49%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.87%E -1.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-12 19:49
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -5.24%E -2.49%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -7.26%E -4.30%K -10.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-12 19:54
FanDuel2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.14%E -2.95%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.42%E -1.94%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-12 19:59
SportsBet2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -6.59%E -3.18%K -6.16%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.42%E -1.94%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 19:59
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.49%E -3.65%K -7.14%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.52%E -2.60%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 19:15
Neds2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -8.85%E -4.38%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -2.32%E -1.31%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -8.85%E -4.38%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -2.32%E -1.31%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 16:34
BetRivers2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -8.85%E -4.38%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -3.97%E -2.27%K -5.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-12 17:35
Fliff2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -9.75%E -4.87%K -9.75%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -8.36%E -5.01%K -12.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-12 19:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.50%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.50%0.8%2026-07-12 20:00