The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Denver Nuggets v Portland Trail Blazers

Kickoff: 2026-07-17 02:00 UTC

Final: Denver Nuggets 101–108 Portland Trail Blazers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Denver Nuggets (Local)

Prediction 52.91%1.89fair odd
EV +0.531%
Edge +0.280%
Kelly +0.591%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.20%53.07%52.73%56.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.801.811.9059.88%55.48%55.40%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Portland Trail Blazers (Visit)

Prediction 47.09%2.12fair odd
EV +1.24%
Edge +0.577%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.72%46.93%47.27%50.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.842.001.992.1554.35%49.89%50.25%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Denver Nuggets (Local): 52.91%; Portland Trail Blazers (Visit): 47.09%. For Portland Trail Blazers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.12. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -7.93%E -4.56%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV +1.24%E +0.577%K +1.08%G +0.013%4.0%2026-07-17 01:55
BetRivers1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -11.64%E -6.97%K -17.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV +1.24%E +0.577%K +1.08%G +0.013%6.4%2026-07-17 01:55
FanDuel1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -8.99%E -5.23%K -12.49%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -0.172%E -0.081%K -0.154%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 01:55
DraftKings1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -6.35%E -3.59%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.11%E -0.530%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-17 01:55
Caesars1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -6.35%E -3.59%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.11%E -0.530%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-17 01:49
SportsBet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -7.93%E -4.56%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -1.11%E -0.530%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 01:55
Bovada1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.76%E -2.64%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.47%E -1.69%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-17 01:55
BetOnline.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.76%E -2.64%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.47%E -1.69%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-17 01:55
Hard Rock Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.17%E -1.73%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.82%E -2.91%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 01:55
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.17%E -1.73%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.82%E -2.91%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 01:43
ReBet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -3.17%E -1.73%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -6.76%E -3.42%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 01:55
Neds1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -3.70%E -2.03%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -6.76%E -3.42%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-17 01:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -3.70%E -2.03%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -6.76%E -3.42%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-17 01:45
Fanatics1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -1.06%E -0.565%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -8.18%E -4.19%K -8.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-17 01:55
theScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.76%E -2.64%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.18%E -4.19%K -8.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 01:55
Pinnacle1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -0.527%E -0.280%K -0.599%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -9.12%E -4.72%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 01:55
Marathon Bet1.81I 55.25%NM 51.47%EV -4.23%E -2.34%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -9.59%E -4.99%K -10.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 01:55
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.27%EV -2.11%E -1.14%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%EV -11.94%E -6.39%K -13.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-17 01:55
Fliff1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%EV -4.76%E -2.64%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%EV -11.94%E -6.39%K -13.73%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-17 01:45
MyBookie.ag1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV +0.531%E +0.280%K +0.591%G +0.003%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.80%EV -13.36%E -7.26%K -15.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-17 01:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%0.6%2026-07-17 01:50
Novig1.83I 54.64%NM 54.25%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.75%0.7%2026-07-17 01:55
ProphetX1.78I 56.18%NM 55.28%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.72%1.6%2026-07-17 01:55