The School of Odds
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Denver Nuggets v Houston Rockets

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 22:35 UTC

Final: Denver Nuggets 86–97 Houston Rockets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Denver Nuggets (Local)

Prediction 45.28%2.21fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.04%45.28%45.74%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.082.052.1650.00%48.19%48.78%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Houston Rockets (Visit)

Prediction 54.72%1.83fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.840%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%54.72%54.26%55.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.731.741.8059.88%57.73%57.47%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -2.19%E -1.01%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -6.98%E -4.11%K -9.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 22:32
SportsBet2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -3.09%E -1.44%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -6.44%E -3.76%K -9.06%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 22:32
BetRivers2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -4.00%E -1.89%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.08%E -4.81%K -11.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-10 22:30
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.90%E -2.33%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.15%E -1.78%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 22:30
DraftKings2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.90%E -2.33%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.15%E -1.78%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 22:30
Marathon Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.83%EV -5.81%E -2.79%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.17%EV -7.53%E -4.46%K -10.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-10 22:29
Bovada2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -1.51%E -0.840%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 22:29
Pinnacle2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -2.61%E -1.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 22:29
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.25%E -2.43%K -5.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 22:29
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.25%E -2.43%K -5.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 22:30
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.79%E -2.76%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-10 22:30
Hard Rock Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.79%E -2.76%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-10 22:32
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.98%E -4.11%K -9.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 22:29
Fliff2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -9.43%E -4.72%K -9.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -8.62%E -5.16%K -12.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-10 22:32
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.06I 48.54%NM 47.18%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.82%2.9%2026-07-10 22:32