The School of Odds
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Dallas Mavericks v Los Angeles Lakers

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 02:00 UTC

Final: Dallas Mavericks 70–91 Los Angeles Lakers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dallas Mavericks (Local)

Prediction 55.71%1.80fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.94%55.51%55.70%57.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.701.701.7660.24%58.70%58.82%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Los Angeles Lakers (Visit)

Prediction 44.29%2.26fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.552%
Kelly -1.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.67%44.49%44.30%47.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.152.152.2350.51%46.54%46.51%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 52.94%EV -1.95%E -1.11%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.06%EV -12.30%E -6.21%K -12.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 01:49
Fanatics1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.07%E -1.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.77%E -2.22%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-12 01:50
Bovada1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.07%E -1.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.77%E -2.22%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-12 01:43
Hard Rock Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.74%E -2.77%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.56%E -1.16%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-12 01:34
Pinnacle1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.74%E -2.77%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.77%E -2.22%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-12 01:40
BetRivers1.71I 58.48%NM 54.88%EV -4.74%E -2.77%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%EV -7.87%E -3.79%K -7.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-12 01:24
DraftKings1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.30%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.56%E -1.16%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-12 01:34
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.30%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.77%E -2.22%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 01:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.30%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.77%E -2.22%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 01:39
ReBet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -5.85%E -3.46%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -3.89%E -1.79%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 01:44
Betr (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.85%E -3.46%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.99%E -3.33%K -6.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-12 01:49
FanDuel1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -6.97%E -4.17%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -1.67%E -0.754%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-12 01:34
theScore Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.97%E -4.17%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.77%E -2.22%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-12 01:45
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.52%E -4.53%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -1.23%E -0.552%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 01:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 56.57%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.43%2.8%2026-07-12 01:50