The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dallas Mavericks v Golden State Warriors

Kickoff: 2026-07-09 23:10 UTC

Final: Dallas Mavericks 90–101 Golden State Warriors

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dallas Mavericks (Local)

Prediction 35.15%2.84fair odd
EV +0.183%
Edge +0.064%
Kelly +0.099%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.94%35.06%35.58%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.692.682.8539.22%37.21%37.31%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Golden State Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 64.85%1.54fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -5.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.96%64.94%64.42%67.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.461.471.5071.94%68.46%68.03%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV +0.183%E +0.064%K +0.099%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -6.62%E -4.60%K -15.04%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-09 22:29
Marathon Bet2.83I 35.34%NM 32.94%EV -0.521%E -0.184%K -0.284%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.06%EV -9.86%E -7.09%K -25.28%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-09 22:49
Pinnacle2.82I 35.46%NM 33.65%EV -0.872%E -0.309%K -0.479%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.35%EV -7.27%E -5.08%K -16.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 22:30
DraftKings2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -1.58%E -0.563%K -0.875%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -5.32%E -3.64%K -11.57%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-09 22:49
ReBet2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -4.39%E -1.61%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -4.67%E -3.18%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 22:49
Hard Rock Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.09%E -1.89%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.97%E -4.12%K -13.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-09 22:49
Betr (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -5.09%E -1.89%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.27%E -5.08%K -16.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-09 22:54
FanDuel2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58%EV -5.79%E -2.16%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42%EV -4.02%E -2.72%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 22:54
SportsBet2.66I 37.59%NM 35.75%EV -6.50%E -2.44%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -4.02%E -2.72%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 22:59
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -6.85%E -2.58%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -2.73%E -1.82%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-09 22:49
Fliff2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -6.85%E -2.58%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -7.27%E -5.08%K -16.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-09 22:55
theScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -8.61%E -3.31%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -4.67%E -3.18%K -9.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-09 22:59
Ladbrokes (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -10.36%E -4.06%K -6.69%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.73%E -1.82%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 12:44
Neds2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -10.36%E -4.06%K -6.69%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.73%E -1.82%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 12:45
BetRivers2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -10.36%E -4.06%K -6.69%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -4.02%E -2.72%K -8.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-09 19:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.88I 34.72%NM 33.94%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.06%2.3%2026-07-09 23:00