The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cleveland Cavaliers v New Orleans Pelicans

Kickoff: 2026-07-15 21:30 UTC

Final: Cleveland Cavaliers 82–77 New Orleans Pelicans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Cavaliers (Local)

Prediction 46.42%2.15fair odd
EV +1.19%
Edge +0.547%
Kelly +1.01%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.96%46.20%46.67%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.042.042.1851.28%48.94%49.02%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Orleans Pelicans (Visit)

Prediction 53.58%1.87fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -2.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%53.80%53.33%56.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.771.771.8359.17%56.39%56.50%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Cavaliers (Local): 46.42%; New Orleans Pelicans (Visit): 53.58%. For Cleveland Cavaliers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.19%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV +1.19%E +0.547%K +1.01%G +0.012%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -8.38%E -4.90%K -11.80%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-15 21:24
BetMGM2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.52%E -1.20%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-15 20:24
BetUS2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.52%E -1.20%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-15 21:15
BetOnline.ag2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.52%E -1.20%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-15 21:20
LowVig.ag2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.52%E -1.20%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-15 21:20
Marathon Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.83%EV -3.45%E -1.66%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.17%EV -9.45%E -5.59%K -13.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-15 21:25
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.55%E -1.97%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-15 20:29
Bovada2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.55%E -1.97%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-15 21:19
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-15 21:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-15 21:10
Pinnacle2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -5.31%E -2.60%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -4.09%E -2.28%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-15 21:10
FanDuel2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.31%E -2.60%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.62%E -2.60%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-15 20:24
SportsBet2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -5.77%E -2.84%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.09%E -2.28%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-15 20:24
ReBet2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -6.70%E -3.33%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -3.02%E -1.67%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-15 21:05
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.16%E -3.58%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.95%E -1.06%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-15 21:25
Hard Rock Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.16%E -3.58%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.95%E -1.06%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-15 20:24
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.16%E -3.58%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-15 20:50
BetRivers2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.16%E -3.58%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-15 21:25
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.16%E -3.58%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-15 21:25
MyBookie.ag1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -8.09%E -4.09%K -8.26%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-15 20:34
Fliff1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -9.48%E -4.86%K -9.98%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.70%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-15 21:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.25I 44.44%NM 44.31%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.69%0.3%2026-07-15 21:20
ProphetX2.27I 44.05%NM 43.39%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.61%1.5%2026-07-15 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19%2.4%2026-07-15 21:25