The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cleveland Cavaliers v Miami Heat

Kickoff: 2026-07-14 00:00 UTC

Final: Cleveland Cavaliers 90–73 Miami Heat

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Cavaliers (Local)

Prediction 51.19%1.95fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.17%51.33%52.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.851.831.9155.56%54.07%54.64%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Miami Heat (Visit)

Prediction 48.81%2.05fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.78%48.83%48.67%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.941.932.0053.19%51.55%51.81%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Cavaliers (Local): 51.19%; Miami Heat (Visit): 48.81%. For Cleveland Cavaliers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.91, with an expected value of -2.22%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.22%E -1.16%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-13 23:09
Pinnacle1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -2.73%E -1.44%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -6.29%E -3.28%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-13 23:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.73%E -1.44%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.27%E -3.82%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-13 23:50
Neds1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.73%E -1.44%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.27%E -3.82%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-13 23:50
Bovada1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.27%E -2.28%K -4.91%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.83%E -2.47%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-13 23:50
Marathon Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -5.29%E -2.86%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -8.24%E -4.38%K -9.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-13 23:55
ReBet1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -5.81%E -3.16%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -3.85%E -1.95%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-13 23:50
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.32%E -3.45%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.38%E -1.19%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-13 23:55
Hard Rock Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.32%E -3.45%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.38%E -1.19%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-13 23:50
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -6.32%E -3.45%K -7.61%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -3.36%E -1.70%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-13 23:55
SportsBet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -6.32%E -3.45%K -7.61%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -3.36%E -1.70%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-13 23:44
BetRivers1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.32%E -3.45%K -7.61%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -5.80%E -3.01%K -6.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-13 23:50
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -6.83%E -3.75%K -8.33%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -6.29%E -3.28%K -6.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-13 23:34
theScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.85%E -4.36%K -9.82%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -4.83%E -2.47%K -5.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-13 23:50
Fliff1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.85%E -4.36%K -9.82%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-13 23:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%1.1%2026-07-13 23:55