The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Boston Celtics v Charlotte Hornets

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 21:00 UTC

Final: Boston Celtics 87–75 Charlotte Hornets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boston Celtics (Local)

Prediction 52.68%1.90fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -3.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.44%52.63%53.00%53.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.801.801.8557.47%55.69%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Charlotte Hornets (Visit)

Prediction 47.32%2.11fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.40%47.37%47.00%48.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.012.012.0551.28%49.75%49.63%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boston Celtics (Local): 52.68%; Charlotte Hornets (Visit): 47.32%. For Boston Celtics (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.90. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.85, with an expected value of -2.55%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -2.55%E -1.38%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -7.25%E -3.70%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 17:25
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.60%E -1.97%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.35%E -2.68%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-12 20:49
SportsBet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -3.60%E -1.97%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -6.30%E -3.18%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 17:24
BetRivers1.81I 55.25%NM 51.86%EV -4.66%E -2.57%K -5.75%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -7.72%E -3.96%K -8.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-12 17:39
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.99%E -1.46%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-12 19:49
Hard Rock Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.99%E -1.46%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-12 17:49
Bovada1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.99%E -1.46%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-12 20:33
Pinnacle1.80I 55.56%NM 53.00%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV -3.93%E -1.94%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-12 20:39
ReBet1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -5.71%E -3.19%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -3.93%E -1.94%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 20:49
Ladbrokes (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -6.24%E -3.50%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -4.41%E -2.18%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 17:34
Neds1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -6.24%E -3.50%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -4.41%E -2.18%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 17:34
theScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.76%E -3.82%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.35%E -2.68%K -5.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-12 17:49
Betr (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.07%EV -7.29%E -4.14%K -9.59%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.93%EV -5.83%E -2.93%K -5.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 20:55
Marathon Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 53.60%EV -8.34%E -4.80%K -11.27%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.40%EV -4.88%E -2.43%K -4.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-12 19:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%0.7%2026-07-12 20:55