The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Atlanta Hawks v Memphis Grizzlies

Kickoff: 2026-07-17 00:00 UTC

Final: Atlanta Hawks 64–96 Memphis Grizzlies

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlanta Hawks (Local)

Prediction 30.26%3.30fair odd
EV +4.09%
Edge +1.19%
Kelly +1.68%
Growth +0.069%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.73%30.42%30.01%33.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.113.183.4436.36%32.19%31.45%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Memphis Grizzlies (Visit)

Prediction 69.74%1.43fair odd
EV -0.270%
Edge -0.189%
Kelly -0.628%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.11%69.58%69.99%72.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.371.361.4375.76%72.99%73.53%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlanta Hawks (Local): 30.26%; Memphis Grizzlies (Visit): 69.74%. For Atlanta Hawks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet3.44I 29.07%NM 27.73%EV +4.09%E +1.19%K +1.68%G +0.069%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.27%EV -7.94%E -6.02%K -24.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-16 23:50
FanDuel3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV +2.88%E +0.847%K +1.20%G +0.035%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -7.94%E -6.02%K -24.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 23:55
Caesars3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV +1.37%E +0.408%K +0.582%G +0.008%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -6.55%E -4.89%K -19.26%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-16 23:54
DraftKings3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -1.66%E -0.510%K -0.737%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.15%E -3.79%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-16 23:35
Hard Rock Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.66%E -0.510%K -0.737%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.24%E -5.45%K -21.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-16 23:55
Fanatics3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.17%E -0.991%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.15%E -3.79%K -14.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-16 23:45
BetOnline.ag3.19I 31.35%NM 30.20%EV -3.47%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80%EV -3.76%E -2.72%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-16 23:55
LowVig.ag3.19I 31.35%NM 30.20%EV -3.47%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80%EV -3.76%E -2.72%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-16 23:55
BetUS3.18I 31.45%NM 30.26%EV -3.78%E -1.19%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.74%EV -3.76%E -2.72%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-16 23:50
ReBet3.18I 31.45%NM 29.96%EV -3.78%E -1.19%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.04%EV -5.15%E -3.79%K -14.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-16 23:45
Marathon Bet3.18I 31.45%NM 29.33%EV -3.78%E -1.19%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.67%EV -7.94%E -6.02%K -24.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-16 23:55
Bovada3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -2.36%E -1.69%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-16 23:49
MyBookie.ag3.08I 32.47%NM 30.32%EV -6.80%E -2.21%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.68%EV -6.55%E -4.89%K -19.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-16 23:55
Betr (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -5.85%E -4.33%K -16.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-16 23:55
Pinnacle3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -3.06%E -2.20%K -7.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 23:50
theScore Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.85%E -4.33%K -16.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-16 23:40
BetMGM2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -10.74%E -3.64%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -0.270%E -0.189%K -0.628%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-16 23:45
Ladbrokes (AU)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -13.76%E -4.83%K -7.44%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -0.968%E -0.681%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-16 23:45
Neds2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -13.76%E -4.83%K -7.44%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -0.968%E -0.681%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-16 23:45
BetRivers2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -15.28%E -5.46%K -8.49%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -1.67%E -1.18%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-16 23:55
Fliff2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -16.79%E -6.10%K -9.59%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -1.67%E -1.18%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-16 23:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.22%1.43I 69.93%NM 68.78%1.7%2026-07-16 23:50
ProphetX3.10I 32.26%NM 31.26%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.74%3.2%2026-07-16 23:55
Novig3.17I 31.55%NM 30.02%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.98%5.1%2026-07-16 23:55