The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Toronto Raptors v Miami Heat

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 23:16 UTC

Final: Toronto Raptors 105–129 Miami Heat

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Raptors (Local)

Prediction 54.23%1.84fair odd
EV +1.41%
Edge +0.753%
Kelly +1.62%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%54.09%54.29%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.741.731.8759.88%57.33%57.80%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Miami Heat (Visit)

Prediction 45.77%2.18fair odd
EV +0.696%
Edge +0.316%
Kelly +0.580%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%45.91%45.71%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.082.102.2051.28%48.08%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Raptors (Local): 54.23%; Miami Heat (Visit): 45.77%. For Toronto Raptors (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.84. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV +1.41%E +0.753%K +1.62%G +0.023%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -10.75%E -5.51%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-03 23:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -0.760%E -0.416%K -0.916%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -8.46%E -4.23%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-03 23:10
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.39%E -1.33%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -6.17%E -3.01%K -5.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-03 22:55
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.01%E -2.27%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.88%E -1.85%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-03 23:05
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.01%E -2.27%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -5.71%E -2.77%K -5.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 22:55
SportsBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -4.56%E -2.59%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -6.17%E -3.01%K -5.88%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 22:55
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.10%E -2.91%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.88%E -1.85%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-03 22:50
ReBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -5.10%E -2.91%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -4.34%E -2.08%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 22:55
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.64%E -3.24%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -1.59%E -0.741%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-03 23:10
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.64%E -3.24%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.17%E -3.01%K -5.88%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 22:55
Bet Right🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.85%EV -5.64%E -3.24%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.15%EV -7.09%E -3.49%K -6.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-03 22:59
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -6.18%E -3.57%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -2.97%E -1.40%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 21:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -6.18%E -3.57%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -2.97%E -1.40%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 21:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -6.18%E -3.57%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -2.97%E -1.40%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 21:45
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -6.18%E -3.57%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -2.97%E -1.40%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 21:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -6.18%E -3.57%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -2.97%E -1.40%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 21:45
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -6.18%E -3.57%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -2.97%E -1.40%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 21:45
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -6.18%E -3.57%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -2.97%E -1.40%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 21:45
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -6.18%E -3.57%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -2.97%E -1.40%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 21:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -6.73%E -3.91%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -6.17%E -3.01%K -5.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-03 22:59
MyBookie.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.81%E -4.59%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.46%E -4.23%K -8.46%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-03 23:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -9.44%E -5.65%K -14.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +0.696%E +0.316%K +0.580%G +0.004%5.3%2026-10-03 22:30
Betsson🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -9.44%E -5.65%K -14.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -8.46%E -4.23%K -8.46%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-03 22:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74%0.6%2026-10-03 23:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74%0.6%2026-10-03 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74%0.6%2026-10-03 23:10