The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Oklahoma City Thunder v New Orleans Pelicans

Kickoff: 2026-10-07 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oklahoma City Thunder (Local)

Prediction 71.50%1.40fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -7.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.50%71.50%70.81%73.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.311.301.3676.92%76.23%76.92%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Orleans Pelicans (Visit)

Prediction 28.50%3.51fair odd
EV +1.17%
Edge +0.331%
Kelly +0.460%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.80%28.50%29.19%29.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.473.553.5530.77%28.83%28.17%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oklahoma City Thunder (Local): 71.50%; New Orleans Pelicans (Visit): 28.50%. For New Orleans Pelicans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.51. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +1.17%E +0.331%K +0.460%G +0.005%5.1%2026-10-05 10:24
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +1.17%E +0.331%K +0.460%G +0.005%5.1%2026-10-05 10:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +1.17%E +0.331%K +0.460%G +0.005%5.1%2026-10-05 10:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +1.17%E +0.331%K +0.460%G +0.005%5.1%2026-10-05 10:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +1.17%E +0.331%K +0.460%G +0.005%5.1%2026-10-05 10:25
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +1.17%E +0.331%K +0.460%G +0.005%5.1%2026-10-05 10:25
Bally Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +1.17%E +0.331%K +0.460%G +0.005%5.1%2026-10-05 10:24
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +1.17%E +0.331%K +0.460%G +0.005%5.1%2026-10-05 10:22
DraftKings🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -2.76%E -2.03%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -7.38%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-05 04:24
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.19%E -3.13%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.38%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-05 14:05
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.38%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-05 14:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 74.94%3.20I 31.25%NM 25.06%24.7%2026-10-05 15:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 74.94%3.20I 31.25%NM 25.06%24.7%2026-10-05 15:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 74.94%3.20I 31.25%NM 25.06%24.7%2026-10-05 15:00