The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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New York Knicks v Minnesota Timberwolves

Kickoff: 2026-10-12 23:42 UTC

Final: New York Knicks 104–122 Minnesota Timberwolves

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Knicks (Local)

Prediction 49.29%2.03fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.708%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.64%49.21%49.48%50.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.951.982.0054.95%51.23%50.51%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit)

Prediction 50.71%1.97fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.74%50.79%50.52%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.841.821.9254.95%54.31%54.95%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Knicks (Local): 49.29%; Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit): 50.71%. For New York Knicks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.03. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of -1.42%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -1.42%E -0.708%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -7.20%E -3.94%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-12 22:34
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -1.42%E -0.708%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -7.20%E -3.94%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-12 23:34
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -1.42%E -0.708%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.71%E -4.24%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-12 22:25
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -1.42%E -0.708%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.71%E -4.24%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-12 22:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -1.42%E -0.708%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.71%E -4.24%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-12 22:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -1.42%E -0.708%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.71%E -4.24%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-12 22:24
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -1.42%E -0.708%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.71%E -4.24%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-12 22:25
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -1.42%E -0.708%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.71%E -4.24%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-12 22:24
Bally Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -1.42%E -0.708%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -7.71%E -4.24%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-12 22:24
FanDuel🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -2.40%E -1.21%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -7.20%E -3.94%K -8.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-12 23:34
SportsBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -2.40%E -1.21%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -7.71%E -4.24%K -9.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-12 23:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -3.39%E -1.73%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.19%E -3.35%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-12 23:39
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.88%E -1.99%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.18%E -2.77%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-12 23:29
DraftKings🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -4.87%E -2.52%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -4.16%E -2.20%K -4.68%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-12 23:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -5.36%E -2.79%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -7.71%E -4.24%K -9.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-12 23:25
Bet Right🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -5.36%E -2.79%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -7.71%E -4.24%K -9.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-12 23:24
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.85%E -3.06%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.15%E -1.65%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-12 23:36
Pinnacle🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -6.34%E -3.34%K -7.05%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -2.64%E -1.38%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-12 23:30
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.82%E -4.18%K -8.99%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.18%E -2.77%K -5.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-12 23:29
MyBookie.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.81%E -4.76%K -10.36%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.19%E -3.35%K -7.28%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-12 23:35
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.00%EV -10.29%E -5.65%K -12.55%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.00%EV -7.71%E -4.24%K -9.40%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-12 23:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%2.4%2026-10-12 23:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%2.4%2026-10-12 23:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%2.4%2026-10-12 23:40