The School of Odds
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Minnesota Timberwolves v Detroit Pistons

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 00:10 UTC

Final: Minnesota Timberwolves 106–128 Detroit Pistons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Minnesota Timberwolves (Local)

Prediction 62.01%1.61fair odd
EV +3.55%
Edge +2.13%
Kelly +5.30%
Growth +0.188%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.93%61.97%61.81%65.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.521.501.6769.44%65.84%66.67%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Detroit Pistons (Visit)

Prediction 37.99%2.63fair odd
EV +2.58%
Edge +0.957%
Kelly +1.52%
Growth +0.039%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.78%38.03%38.19%42.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.532.552.7043.48%39.53%39.14%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Minnesota Timberwolves (Local): 62.01%; Detroit Pistons (Visit): 37.99%. For Minnesota Timberwolves (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.61. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.67, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV +3.55%E +2.13%K +5.30%G +0.188%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -12.61%E -5.48%K -9.70%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-15 00:03
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV +0.449%E +0.277%K +0.725%G +0.003%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -8.81%E -3.67%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-15 00:05
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV +0.449%E +0.277%K +0.725%G +0.003%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -9.57%E -4.02%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-15 00:05
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.27%E -2.10%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.01%E -2.01%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-15 00:05
FanDuel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -3.27%E -2.10%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -6.53%E -2.66%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 00:00
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.13%E -3.35%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.01%E -2.01%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-14 23:55
SportsBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.13%E -3.35%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-15 00:00
Caesars🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -6.37%E -4.22%K -12.49%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -0.455%E -0.174%K -0.281%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-14 23:14
ReBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.99%E -4.66%K -13.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.21%E -0.467%K -0.759%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 23:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.99%E -4.66%K -13.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.21%E -0.467%K -0.759%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 17:14
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.99%E -4.66%K -13.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.21%E -0.467%K -0.759%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 17:14
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.99%E -4.66%K -13.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.21%E -0.467%K -0.759%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 17:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.99%E -4.66%K -13.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.21%E -0.467%K -0.759%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 17:15
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.99%E -4.66%K -13.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.21%E -0.467%K -0.759%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 17:14
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.99%E -4.66%K -13.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.21%E -0.467%K -0.759%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 17:14
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.99%E -4.66%K -13.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.21%E -0.467%K -0.759%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 17:18
Bally Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.99%E -4.66%K -13.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.21%E -0.467%K -0.759%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 17:14
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.05%EV -6.99%E -4.66%K -13.98%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.95%EV -2.73%E -1.07%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-14 23:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.99%E -4.66%K -13.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.01%E -2.01%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-15 00:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -8.23%E -5.56%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -3.11%E -1.22%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-14 23:59
Bet Right🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -8.23%E -5.56%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -3.11%E -1.22%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-14 23:15
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.36%EV -8.23%E -5.56%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -10.71%E -4.56%K -7.94%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-15 00:05
picklebet_au🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -8.85%E -6.02%K -18.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -5.01%E -2.01%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-14 23:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -10.71%E -7.44%K -24.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV +2.58%E +0.957%K +1.52%G +0.039%6.5%2026-10-14 23:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59%0.8%2026-10-15 00:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.56%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44%1.2%2026-10-15 00:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.56%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44%1.2%2026-10-15 00:05