The School of Odds
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Milwaukee Bucks v Minnesota Timberwolves

Kickoff: 2026-10-06 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Milwaukee Bucks (Local)

Prediction 36.24%2.76fair odd
EV +0.395%
Edge +0.143%
Kelly +0.223%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.61%36.07%36.35%37.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.622.632.7740.32%38.18%38.02%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit)

Prediction 63.76%1.57fair odd
EV -0.540%
Edge -0.346%
Kelly -0.965%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.04%63.93%63.65%65.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.491.501.5669.44%67.07%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Milwaukee Bucks (Local): 36.24%; Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit): 63.76%. For Milwaukee Bucks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.76. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.395%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV +0.395%E +0.143%K +0.223%G +0.001%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -5.00%E -3.36%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-05 15:05
Pinnacle🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV -0.692%E -0.253%K -0.398%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -7.55%E -5.21%K -16.79%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-05 13:05
Caesars🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -2.14%E -0.793%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -5.00%E -3.36%K -10.21%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-05 15:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -3.95%E -1.49%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.92%E -4.74%K -15.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-05 14:19
DraftKings🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -4.32%E -1.64%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -3.73%E -2.47%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-05 11:41
BetUS🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -4.68%E -1.78%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -2.45%E -1.60%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-05 13:55
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.68%E -1.78%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-04 09:15
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.68%E -1.78%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-04 09:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.68%E -1.78%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-04 09:15
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.68%E -1.78%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-04 09:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.68%E -1.78%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-04 09:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.68%E -1.78%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-04 09:15
Bally Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.68%E -1.78%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-04 09:15
betPARX🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.68%E -1.78%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-04 09:15
ReBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.10%EV -5.04%E -1.92%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.90%EV -5.64%E -3.81%K -11.75%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-05 14:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -5.77%E -2.22%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.92%E -4.74%K -15.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-05 12:41
MyBookie.ag🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.14%EV -6.49%E -2.52%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.86%EV -6.92%E -4.74%K -15.03%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-05 14:10
FanDuel🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%EV -7.22%E -2.82%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%EV -3.09%E -2.03%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-05 15:13
SportsBet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.95%EV -7.22%E -2.82%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.05%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-05 15:13
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -7.58%E -2.97%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -0.540%E -0.346%K -0.965%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-05 14:06
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -9.39%E -3.76%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -7.55%E -5.21%K -16.79%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-05 13:00
Betsson🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.73%EV -10.12%E -4.08%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.27%EV -8.19%E -5.69%K -18.62%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-05 13:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.03%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.97%1.9%2026-10-05 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.20%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.80%2.2%2026-10-05 15:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.20%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.80%2.2%2026-10-05 15:10