Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Heat v Minnesota Timberwolves

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 00:11 UTC

Final: Miami Heat 124–125 Minnesota Timberwolves

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

43%

57%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Heat (Local)

Prediction 43.05%2.32fair odd

EV +1.17%

Edge +0.499%

Kelly +0.868%

Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.51%42.82%43.15%43.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.272.292.3547.62%44.06%43.76%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit)

Prediction 56.95%1.76fair odd

EV -3.19%

Edge -1.88%

Kelly -4.55%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

56.58%57.18%56.85%59.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.601.631.621.7062.50%61.30%61.73%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miami Heat (Local): 43.05%; Minnesota Timberwolves (Visit): 56.95%. For Miami Heat (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Unibet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +1.17%E +0.499%K +0.868%G +0.010%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -8.88%E -5.55%K -14.80%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-10 22:45
TABtouch🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +1.17%E +0.499%K +0.868%G +0.010%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -8.88%E -5.55%K -14.80%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-10 22:45
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +1.17%E +0.499%K +0.868%G +0.010%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -8.88%E -5.55%K -14.80%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-10 22:45
LiveScore Bet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +1.17%E +0.499%K +0.868%G +0.010%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -8.88%E -5.55%K -14.80%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-10 22:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +1.17%E +0.499%K +0.868%G +0.010%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -8.88%E -5.55%K -14.80%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-10 22:45
Bally Bet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +1.17%E +0.499%K +0.868%G +0.010%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -8.88%E -5.55%K -14.80%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-10 22:45
betPARX🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +1.17%E +0.499%K +0.868%G +0.010%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -8.88%E -5.55%K -14.80%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-10 22:45
FanDuel🎯	2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -0.120%E -0.052%K -0.091%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -7.74%E -4.78%K -12.49%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-11 00:00
Bovada🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.981%E -0.426%K -0.755%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-10-10 23:55
BetUS🎯	2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -1.41%E -0.616%K -1.09%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-10-10 22:50
ReBet🎯	2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -1.41%E -0.616%K -1.09%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -7.17%E -4.40%K -11.39%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-10 23:40
SportsBet🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -1.84%E -0.808%K -1.44%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -8.88%E -5.55%K -14.80%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-10-11 00:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.13%E -1.39%K -2.51%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.74%E -4.78%K -12.49%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-10 23:55
DraftKings🎯	2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.56%E -1.59%K -2.87%G +0.000%	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.33%E -2.58%K -6.36%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-10 23:55
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.43%E -1.99%K -3.63%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.19%E -1.88%K -4.55%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-11 00:00
Caesars🎯	2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -4.43%E -1.99%K -3.63%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.76%E -2.22%K -5.45%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-10 22:55
Pinnacle🎯	2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -4.43%E -1.99%K -3.63%G +0.000%	1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -5.47%E -3.29%K -8.28%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-10 23:55
theScore Bet🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.29%E -2.40%K -4.41%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-11 00:00
Bet Right🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.29%E -2.40%K -4.41%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.74%E -4.78%K -12.49%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-10-11 00:00
Betr (AU)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.29%E -2.40%K -4.41%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.31%E -5.16%K -13.63%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-10 23:59
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-10-11 00:04
Betsson🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -8.88%E -5.55%K -14.80%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-10-11 00:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90%	1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10%	0.2%	2026-10-11 00:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%	1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%	0.5%	2026-10-11 00:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%	1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%	0.5%	2026-10-11 00:05