The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Miami Heat v Brooklyn Nets

Kickoff: 2026-10-14 23:41 UTC

Final: Miami Heat 144–128 Brooklyn Nets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Heat (Local)

Prediction 60.11%1.66fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -4.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.19%60.30%60.00%62.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.551.541.6268.97%64.62%64.94%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brooklyn Nets (Visit)

Prediction 39.89%2.51fair odd
EV +1.72%
Edge +0.674%
Kelly +1.11%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.18%39.70%40.00%40.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.442.422.5544.44%41.05%41.41%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miami Heat (Local): 60.11%; Brooklyn Nets (Visit): 39.89%. For Brooklyn Nets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.72%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -8.63%E -5.68%K -16.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV +1.72%E +0.674%K +1.11%G +0.019%5.0%2026-10-14 23:15
Unibet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -9.23%E -6.11%K -18.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +1.72%E +0.674%K +1.11%G +0.019%5.4%2026-10-14 23:15
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -9.23%E -6.11%K -18.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +1.72%E +0.674%K +1.11%G +0.019%5.4%2026-10-14 23:19
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -9.23%E -6.11%K -18.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +1.72%E +0.674%K +1.11%G +0.019%5.4%2026-10-14 23:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -9.23%E -6.11%K -18.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +1.72%E +0.674%K +1.11%G +0.019%5.4%2026-10-14 23:14
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -9.23%E -6.11%K -18.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +1.72%E +0.674%K +1.11%G +0.019%5.4%2026-10-14 23:15
Bally Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -9.23%E -6.11%K -18.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +1.72%E +0.674%K +1.11%G +0.019%5.4%2026-10-14 23:14
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.03%E -5.25%K -15.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.276%E -0.110%K -0.184%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-14 23:30
MyBookie.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -9.83%E -6.56%K -19.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -2.27%E -0.927%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-14 23:30
picklebet_au🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -9.83%E -6.56%K -19.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -2.27%E -0.927%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-14 23:30
Fliff🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.82%EV -12.84%E -8.86%K -28.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -2.27%E -0.927%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-14 23:35
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -4.42%E -2.78%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -3.07%E -1.26%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-14 22:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.62%E -1.62%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -4.27%E -1.78%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-14 23:25
DraftKings🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.82%E -2.39%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.27%E -1.78%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-14 23:24
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.63%E -3.58%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.27%E -1.78%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-14 23:30
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -2.62%E -1.62%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -5.06%E -2.13%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-14 23:24
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -4.42%E -2.78%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -5.06%E -2.13%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-14 23:35
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.85%EV -4.42%E -2.78%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.15%EV -5.46%E -2.30%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 23:29
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.62%E -1.62%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -6.26%E -2.66%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-14 23:28
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.03%E -3.18%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.26%E -2.66%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-14 23:30
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.63%E -3.58%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.26%E -2.66%K -4.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-14 23:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.83%E -4.41%K -12.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.26%E -2.66%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-14 23:29
Bet Right🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.83%E -4.41%K -12.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.26%E -2.66%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-14 23:30
Betsson🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -8.03%E -5.25%K -15.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -10.25%E -4.55%K -8.20%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-14 23:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-10-14 23:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-10-14 23:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.0%2026-10-14 23:35