The School of Odds
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Indiana Pacers v Milwaukee Bucks

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 23:10 UTC

Final: Indiana Pacers 127–128 Milwaukee Bucks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Indiana Pacers (Local)

Prediction 71.62%1.40fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.846%
Kelly -3.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.20%71.29%71.66%72.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.321.321.3878.13%75.55%75.76%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Milwaukee Bucks (Visit)

Prediction 28.38%3.52fair odd
EV +0.758%
Edge +0.214%
Kelly +0.297%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%28.71%28.34%30.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.343.403.5532.79%29.97%29.41%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Indiana Pacers (Local): 71.62%; Milwaukee Bucks (Visit): 28.38%. For Milwaukee Bucks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.758%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -5.47%E -4.14%K -17.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV +0.758%E +0.214%K +0.297%G +0.002%3.9%2026-10-16 22:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.90%E -5.31%K -22.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.661%E -0.189%K -0.264%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-16 21:44
BetUS🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -4.03%E -3.01%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -2.08%E -0.603%K -0.849%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-16 22:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -2.08%E -0.603%K -0.849%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-16 22:45
BetRivers🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.47%E -4.14%K -17.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -2.08%E -0.603%K -0.849%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-16 22:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.47%E -4.14%K -17.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -2.08%E -0.603%K -0.849%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-16 22:45
Unibet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.47%E -4.14%K -17.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -2.08%E -0.603%K -0.849%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-16 22:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.47%E -4.14%K -17.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -2.08%E -0.603%K -0.849%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-16 22:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.47%E -4.14%K -17.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -2.08%E -0.603%K -0.849%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-16 22:45
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.47%E -4.14%K -17.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -2.08%E -0.603%K -0.849%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-16 22:45
betPARX🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.47%E -4.14%K -17.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -2.08%E -0.603%K -0.849%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-16 22:45
Bally Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.47%E -4.14%K -17.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -2.08%E -0.603%K -0.849%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-16 22:45
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.03%E -3.01%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -3.50%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-16 19:14
Caesars🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.50%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-16 23:04
ReBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.32%E -2.46%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 23:00
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-16 22:50
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.18%E -4.72%K -19.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-16 23:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.47%E -4.14%K -17.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.18%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-16 22:30
Bet Right🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.47%E -4.14%K -17.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.18%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-16 22:30
Fliff🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.43%EV -8.33%E -6.51%K -29.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -9.18%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-16 23:05
picklebet_au🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -5.47%E -4.14%K -17.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -10.59%E -3.36%K -4.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-16 23:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -6.90%E -5.31%K -22.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -10.59%E -3.36%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-16 23:04
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.64%EV -2.60%E -1.91%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.36%EV -11.45%E -3.67%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 22:40
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -1.17%E -0.846%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -12.01%E -3.88%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-16 22:20
Betsson🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.11%EV -6.90%E -5.31%K -22.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -13.43%E -4.40%K -6.55%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-16 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 72.02%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.98%2.1%2026-10-16 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 70.82%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.18%2.3%2026-10-16 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 71.73%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.27%2.5%2026-10-16 23:05